Soybeans Drop Sharply as Wheat Nears Major Low!
Mid-2016 (1 – 2 Year) Cycle Peak Projects Focus…
… to Mid-2018 & Mid-2020 for Future Peaks.
08/31/16 INSIIDE Track: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat remain weak after Soybeans surged into mid-2016 and attacked their extreme upside objective for all of 2016… before reversing lower. That fulfilled the bullish potential for 1Q & 2Q 2016… while increasing the potential for an intra-year peak in 2016…
In the first half of 2016, Soybeans produced the largest rally since 2012 – a 4–Shadow (price) signal that portends a much larger advance after the next low. In order to trigger that signal, Soybeans rallied ~350.0 and exceeded the magnitude of 3+ years’ worth of advances.
Corroborating that, they rallied from early-Nov. into mid-June (~7 months), exceeding by two weeks the 2013/2014 rally (the longest of the past 3–4 years) from early-Nov. ’13 into late-May ’14. That provides the timing/cyclic version of a ‘4–Shadow’ signal as well.
That signal is both a confirmation (that a Major bottom is taking hold) and a harbinger (of a multi-year rally to come; expected in 2017–2019).
From a cycle perspective, Soybeans were expected to surge into mid-2016 – at which point a 6–12 month peak was most likely. A peak in mid-2016 perpetuates a ~4-year low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression – overlapping a ~360-degree high-high cycle that projected a 3–6 month (or greater) peak in May–July 2016.
The May–July period is when highs have been seen in each of the past 4 years… and is also when the multi-year highs of 2000, 2004, 2008 & 2012 were seen – an overlapping 4-year high-high-high-high-high Cycle Progression. It was/is the ideal time for a multi-month/multi-quarter peak.
From a price perspective, the ideal upside target was/is the yearly LHR (intra-year extreme upside objective for 2016) at 1216.5/S. Soybeans peaked at 1208.5/S in mid-June 2016… attacking that extreme upside target.
From a price-pattern perspective, Soybeans were expected to rally enough – in time & price – to turn the monthly trend up. (See the Jan. 2016 INSIIDE Track for corresponding analysis.) That took place on the June 30th close – increasing the potential for an imminent multi-month peak…
On a multi-year basis, Wheat is showing that it could be poised for a multi-quarter (and potentially a multi-year) bottom a little sooner – in 3Q 2016. That would complete a ~4.25 year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression.
A low in the second half of 2016 (ideally around Sept. 2016) would also be a complete 7-Year Cycle from its Sept. 2009 bottom – the lowest low of the past 8+ years.
Wheat is spiking below that low as it completes a symmetrical ~8.25–8.5 year rally (late-1999–early-2008) followed by an ~8.25–8.5 year decline (early-2008–3Q/4Q 2016) – fulfilling an overall ~17-Year Cycle from the 1999 Major bottom. It is in the process of completing successive declines of equal magnitude since 2012 (947–550 & 735–338/W).
Ultimately, that could lead to a multi-year advance taking hold in 2017… a precise 40-Year Cycle from Wheat’s 3-year/150% surge of 1977–1980 (an inflationary period in most markets)…
Corn is also very weak, breaking below its 6–12 month lows and attacking Major support at its Sept. 2014 low (and the lowest level since 2009) at ~318.0/C. Between now and late-2016, Corn could drop as low as 290–300.0/C – its 2009 & 2010 lows, the lowest level since 2006 and its multi-year ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ – the low from which its 5th (V) wave advance (2008–2012) emerged.”
Soybeans drop sharply from multi-year cycle peak in May – July 2016, the latest phase of 2-Year & 4-Year Cycles (that project future 1 – 2 year peaks for May – July 2018 & May – July 2020). They fulfilled multiple upside price targets, corroborating that outlook.
In contrast, Wheat is projecting a major, multi-year low in Aug./Sept. 2016 and the onset of an initial surge in 2016 – 2017. That should be part of an overall advance into 2020 – corroborated by the 40-Year Cycle. Food Crisis Cycles and Flood Cycles, intensifying into 2019 – 2021, reinforce this outlook.
The 4-Year Cycle Peak in Soybeans produced a corroborating peak in mid-2016 (May – July ’16; a precursor to a more dramatic peak in mid-2020) and reinforces this overall outlook for the late-2010’s. See http://40yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/INSIIDETrackSR201205Beans2012em.pdf for details and analysis on the last 4-Year Cycle Peak in 2012.