S+P 500 Poised for Pivotal, Late-Jan ’26 Peak; Projects Initial Drop into Feb 6/9th!
01-28-26 – “The definition of economic ‘inflation’ can be widely disparate depending on who doing the defining. The Fed uses multiple gauges, including their preferred index – the PCE. Other indexes – like the CPI & PPI – also measure one type of inflation in the economy.
Depending on the observer’s ‘bent’, those indexes can be spun. When the CPI or PPI unexpectedly jumps, the next sentence often uttered is something along the lines of ‘Excluding (volatile) food & energy components… inflation was not really that bad.’
That is reassuring to those who didn’t need to eat, drive, ship or receive anything… or pay energy utility bills, etc. during that period.
Another inflation gauge deals with ‘pure’ commodity inflation – the combined price levels of multiple daily ‘commodities’. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is one of those related gauges.
The GSCI – and some related commodity indexes are heavily weighted with energy – hinting that some economists believe energy prices ARE a critical component of affordability for the masses.
Another – sometimes more nuanced – definition of inflation seeks to track the value of the corresponding currency (the currency in which that inflation is being measured) to determine whether more or less of that currency is needed to purchase those commodities.
The reason for nuance is that it ushers in another set of contrasting gauges – used to measure the value of that currency. For those living in the USA, the Dollar Index is often cited as the primary gauge – an index that prices the US Dollar against a basket of other (fiat or debt-based) currencies. The problem is that inherent weakness in other global currencies can mask the underlying weakness in the US Dollar.
As a result, a better gauge is the Dollar versus Gold or Silver – what is often termed hard currency. One can look at the Dollar-based price of Gold or Silver – over an extended period of time – and get a better feel for what the US Dollar is truly worth… and whether or not inflation is dragging down that value.
That brings us back to the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War – projected to usher in a dramatic shift beginning in 2022, immediately after the culmination of the preceding 40-Year Cycle – in 2016 – 2021.
Before and since 2022, INSIIDE Track has repeatedly explained why this phase could/should see the ‘demise’ – to one extent or another – of the US Dollar as global currency kingpin.
2025 was projected to usher in a dramatic phase of that new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War – as a reinforcing 17-Year Cycle joined forces.
On a more specific basis, that 17-Year Cycle was projected to time a massive bull market in Silver, Platinum & Palladium (and also Gold, just not to the extent that Silver was forecast to surge) – beginning in early-April ’25 and lasting into early-2026… ideally stretching into April/May 2026 in Silver & Platinum (Palladium could extend into 3Q 2026).
That analysis has been repeated month-in and month-out, so the overall context and outlook would not be lost. Leading into early-April ’25, there was a myriad of cycles, Cycle Progressions and technical indicators – all projecting the same thing.
One of them is worth revisiting now.
For the first 3 months of 2025, the Weekly Re-Lay kept repeating analysis that Silver needed to see a final spike below its Nov ’24 low before it would fulfill a Major, multi-year wave IV decline and be ready for an even more significant (9 – 12 months or longer) wave V surge.
Silver fulfilled that analysis in early-April ’25 and did it while creating an internal ‘flat a-b-c correction’ in that overall wave IV pullback. That is the most (subsequently) bullish type of correction since a market sets a pair of lows at roughly the same price… instead of the second low being significantly lower.
Simultaneously, Platinum & Palladium were fulfilling related corrections and pinpointed the week of April 7 – 11, ’25 (see April & May ’25 issue of INSIIDE Track and corresponding Weekly Re-Lays) as the most likely time for the weekly 21 MACs to turn positive and help spur the onset of an accelerated 6 – 12-month surge in those white metals.
Monthly 21 MACs concurred. Overlapping those was the uncanny 17-Year Cycle, preparing Silver for a massive advance – linked to the 2008 – 2011 surge (~500% gain) during the previous 17-Year Cycle.
That perpetuated the same 17-Year Cycle that timed the multi-year rally beginning in 1991 AND its predecessor in 1974 (resulting in a ~1000% gain).
One of the many parallels involved the similarity between Silver in 2025, 2008 & 1974 – in which each time Silver had rallied to an initial peak and then corrected for ~6 months before entering the real breakout advance. In April ’25, Silver was matching the duration of the 2008 & 1974 corrections and preparing for that projected major advance.
The reason for revisiting that analysis now is the developing, but VERY general, fulfillment of related rallies… and how this one highlights the escalating inflation in key Dollar-related instruments.
To review, the 17-Year Cycle of Silver timed major, multi-year advances in Silver that averaged ~500% gains… beginning in 1974, 1991 & 2008.
And, the most recent phase of that 17-Year Cycle of Silver (potentially the best ‘comp’ to use) – in 2008 – 2011 – was also a ~500% gain.
If Silver were to match its most recent 17-Year Cycle surge – and/or keep pace with the average of the previous 3 phases of that same 17-Year Cycle – it would ultimately reach ~155.0/SI. (2008 low of ~8.78 x 5.64 = 2011 high of ~49.52/SI; April ’25 low of ~27.50/SI x 5.64 = ~155.0/SI.)
That is a VERY general comparison and does not pinpoint how much time is needed to fulfill that. However, it reinforces the accelerating ‘inflation’ that is eroding the value of the US Dollar… even as the Fed talks about ~3% inflation and the target ~2% inflation. Those figures are smoke and mirrors.
There are other factors corroborating this, including multi-year cycles in the Dollar Index that project the next major low to wait until Dec ‘27/Jan ’28. An initial low in January ’26 could reinforce those cycles.
And then there is ongoing analysis in the GSCI – as well as in the Energy Complex – that have been projecting a near-term advance from multi-month cycle lows in Dec ’25… into Feb and possibly March ’26.
If that outlook is fulfilled – and the past ~6 weeks have initially validated it – the ‘inflation’ numbers are going to look very concerning when they finally come out in March & April ’26.
The first signs of worry could emerge when January ’26 numbers come out in mid- and late-February ’26. This overall analysis will be continued and elaborated in the Feb. ’26 INSIIDE Track. In the interim…
Stock Indices have reached late-Jan ’26, the convergence of 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions – and corroborating ~2-month Cycle Progressions that were projecting a series of ascending highs in late-July, late-Sept, late-Nov ’25… and finally late-Jan ’26. It’s now decision time.
On a near-term basis, stocks dropped into January 21st and set intermediate lows, fulfilling 1 – 2-week downside targets and attacking daily & weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) at that time.
They set a low 2 months from the Nov 21st low, in sync with NQ-100 parallels projecting a quick ~5-trading day decline from Jan 13 into Jan 21, ’26…
1-14-26 – Equally important, the NQ-100 peaked below the level of its Dec 10th high – the previous peak that perpetuated a ~28 trading day Cycle Progression that was/is expected to produce an opposing (1 – 2 week) low around Jan 22, ’26… The interesting thing about the latest high is it sets the NQ-100 up to repeat the action seen after that Dec 10th high…
At the time, the Nasdaq 100 dropped sharply during the subsequent 5 trading days… and set a low on Dec 17th. If the current market does the same (‘c’ = ‘a’ wave decline), it would drop into Jan 21, ’26… 1 day before the Jan 22, ’26 Cycle Progression low and 2 months/60 degrees from the Nov 21, ’25 low…
The NQ-100 is likely to set a series of lows around Jan 21/22, Feb 6/9, and Feb 19 – 22, ’26, based on corroborating daily & weekly Cycle Progressions.” — Jan 14, ’26 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Daily & weekly HLS levels corroborated with the S+P 500 plunging right to a pair of weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) at 6814 – 6829/ESH. On Jan 21st, it bottomed at 6814/ESH – also fulfilling a daily HLS pattern and setting a 1 – 2-week low.
It held above its daily 21 Low MARC – reinforcing the potential for a multi-day rally. As stated in the corresponding analysis, the next 1 – 2 week low is expected on Feb 6/9th.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the S+P 500 is poised to set yet another peak at the same interval of time (10 trading days or approximately 2 weeks) it has done so for the past 3 months…
The same Jan 14th Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated that cycle – which had projected a 1 – 2 week peak to take hold on January 12/13th…
1-14-26 – “It has set a 1 – 2-week (or longer) peak every ~10 trading days since its Oct 28/29th high. The latest phase was on Jan 12/13th and was/is expected to time another high. That is what took place.”
The subsequent phase of that ~10 trading-day cycle just transpired – on January 27/28th – and could have timed another 1 – 2 week peak. The S+P spiked above its previous peak but did not close above it, displaying an initial ‘failure’.
More importantly, it attacked and held monthly resistance AND weekly resistance during mid-week.
Corroborating the potential for a 1 – 2-week (or longer) top to take hold now, the S+P 500 also spiked up to its weekly LHR (extreme upside weekly target) – while the NQ-100 did the same thing – and could be tracing out another ‘ricochet’ or ‘boomerang’ pattern after testing and holding its weekly HLS last week. If so, that would portend a sharp sell-off next week(s).
If so, that could lead to a new round of selling that perfectly dovetails with the weekly 21 MAC sequence and its inversely-correlated 21 MARC in the NQ-100. Those indicators identified the first part of February as a vulnerable time for stock indexes… aligning perfectly with when the 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions would begin to turn down.
As described in the January ’26 INSIIDE Track:
1-06-26 – “Once the month of February ‘26 begins, that inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will surge rapidly – making it much easier for the corresponding weekly 21 MAC to drop (or accelerate lower).”
Other indexes are providing some corroborating signs but need additional confirmation to validate that outlook for the S+P 500 & NQ-100. It would take daily closes below 48,428/DJIA, 6945/ESH & 25,830/NQH to give the first signs of a reversal lower…
One final note: Gold, Silver and the US Dollar are entering a dangerous period, with respect to stocks. This (loose) type of connection has been seen many times before when the market repeatedly shrugs off a bearish factor like this sign of true ‘inflation’.
It shrugs it off over and over and over again. Then one day, out of nowhere (but not really), it doesn’t. And suddenly the market has to play catch-up for all the days or weeks it spent blissfully ignoring a valid, worrisome factor.
Is another one of those days close at hand?…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are powerfully reinforcing signs of a bottom after Crude fulfilled ongoing analysis for a multi-month decline from its late-Sept cycle high into late-Dec/early-Jan ’26. The early-Jan ‘26 lows fulfilled the outlook in Heating Oil to create the 5th consecutive low on an ~8-month interval – on Jan 2 – 12, ’26.
That was forecast to trigger a 1Q ’26 rally – along with Crude…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions that project multi-month peaks to take hold in Jan/Feb ’26 and usher in new declines. The NQ-100 fulfilled multi-year upside objectives (timing & price) in late-Oct ’25 and set a likely 6 – 12-month peak at that time.
Other indexes are expected to set final highs in 1Q ’26 – some in January ’26 and others in February ’26 – as this overall topping process unfolds. Intermediate lows are projected for the days surrounding February 6/9th & March 6/9th, ’26… as part of this overall sequence. The NQ-100 was/is projected to set a series of 1 – 2 week lows on Jan 21/22nd, Feb 6/9, Feb 19/22 & March 6/9, ’26 as part of this process.
The outlook for a major low in energy prices in January ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that.
How Could NQ-100 Confirm Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak?
Is S+P 500 Fulfilling Projected Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
How are Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.