Stock Index Cycles Peaking; Aug 15/16 High Projected; Sell-off Should Follow.
08/11/22 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock indices spiked up to pivotal 2 – 4 week upside targets, further confirming mid-June bottoms and secondary lows projected for July 14 as well as the outlook for an overall advance into Sept ‘22. They were expected to briefly pull back into Aug 8/9 and then enter a new surge.
The Aug 6 Weekly Re-Lay described the ideal scenario in this manner:
“Stock Indexes initially fulfilled intermediate projections for a multi-week advance – based on daily 21 MAC/MARC structure, intra-month trend set-up, and corroborating daily cycle lows – from July 14 into Aug 1 – 5. However, that initial peak is not expected to hold for too long.
Monday’s action should provide some short-term clarification but the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances.
If they are to remain bullish on a short-term basis, they should not turn their intra-month trends down and would ideally remain above their rising daily 21 High MACs during an impending pullback.
The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986 on Aug 8 and then quickly reversing back up. That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.”
The Nasdaq-100 pulled back to 12,963/NQU and bottomed on Aug 9 – fulfilling the ideal timing and price for an early-week pullback. That has resulted in all the primary indexes reaching their primary upside targets for this time frame – at ~33,400/DJIA, ~4260/ESU (it peaked at 4260.5/ESU), 13,400/NQU, 2620/IDX & 1970/QRU. Those levels are also where 1 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month Weekly Re-Lay traders – who were triggered into long positions on the July 14 sell-off – were looking to exit 1/2 of those long positions.
The intra-month and daily uptrends could still spur additional upside into Aug 12 – 16 but these price targets can now be viewed as short-term resistance. From an intermediate perspective, stocks are fulfilling the mid-July buy signals and poised to set intermediate peaks around mid-Aug (and subsequently in mid-Sept – when longer-term cycles converge).”
Stock indexes are nearing fruition of the July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger a 3 – 4 week advance into Aug 15/16 before a 1 – 2 week correction becomes likely (all part of a larger overall advance). A brief pullback into Aug 9 was likely with the NQU expected to test and hold ~12,980 and then rally into mid-Aug. That just took place and triggered a new 3 – 5 day signal, projecting a rally into Aug 15/16. This would heighten the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
In between, a multi-week period of consolidation is expected with a likely 1 – 2 week sell-off following the projected Aug 15/16 high.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second – which should culminate on/around Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario.
Will the Projected Aug 15/16 Peak Trigger New Selling?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.