Stock Index Long Positions Nearing Fruition; Aug 15/16 Peak Could Trigger Sell-off.
08/12/22 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock indices continue to move in lockstep with short-term cycles, trend signals, and corresponding support and resistance. They were projected (see 8/06/22 Weekly Re-Lay) to pull back on Aug 8 & 9 and then reverse higher, resuming their advances and next rallying into mid-Aug.
The NQ-100 was forecast to pull back to 12,943 – 12,986/NQU and then surge again. The S+P 500 had related support at 4104 – 4115/ESU.
The Aug 6 Weekly Re-Lay described the ideal scenario for this past week in this manner::
“… the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances… The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986… then quickly reversing back up. That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.”
The Nasdaq-100 pulled back to 12,963/NQU (S+P hit 4113/ESU) and bottomed on Aug 9 – fulfilling the ideal timing and price for an early-week pullback and ushering in the time for a new surge. That provided another short-term opportunity for 3 – 5 day traders with stocks projected to enter another rally into (at least) mid-month.
All of this action confirms mid-June cycle lows and validates the outlook for an overall advance into Sept ‘22. They were expected to enter a bullish multi-week phase on July 14, which is unfolding and expected to usher in a 1 – 2 week peak in mid-Aug.
A rally into Aug 12 – 16 would fulfill the intra-month uptrends and perpetuate a ~1-month/~30-day cycle that includes multi-week lows on March 14/15, April 12, May 12, June 16 & July 14… and should invert and time a related high on Aug 12 – 16. That would fulfill a related ~1-month low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and project a subsequent peak on Sept 12 – 16.
A spike high on Aug 15/16 should usher in [reserved for subscribers]… Pivotal price targets remain at 34,200/DJIA… (See 8/13/22 Weekly Re-Lay for updated trading strategies related to long positions triggered on July 14.)”
Stock indexes are nearing completion of the July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger a 3 – 4 week advance into Aug 15/16 before a 1 – 2 week correction becomes likely (all part of a larger overall advance). A brief pullback into Aug 9 was fulfilled with the NQU expected to test and hold ~12,980 and then rally into mid-Aug. That just took place and triggered a new 3 – 5 day signal, projecting a rally into Aug 15/16. This would heighten the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
In between, a multi-week period of consolidation is expected with a likely 1 – 2 week sell-off following the projected Aug 15/16 high.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second – which should culminate on/around Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario.
Will the Projected Aug 15/16 Peak Trigger New Selling?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.