Stock Indexes Begin Projected Sharp Declines into March ’26; Oil Poised for Surge into March 13/16th!
02-14-26 – “Stock indexes powerfully validated the 1Q ’26 outlook, again adhering to daily Cycle Progressions and selling off sharply after peaking on Feb 11th. The daily trends in ESH & NQH corroborated that, pinpointing Feb 12th as the ideal date for a new decline to take hold.
Combined with analysis & Cycle Progressions in Bonds & Notes, the Dollar, Euro & Yen, Gold & Silver and the Energy Complex, stock index timing indicators pinpoint Feb 19th & 20th as decisive dates – potentially the time for a new (or intensified) geopolitical stressor. In the current context, that could have to do with Iran…
Stock Indices are powerfully corroborating the 1Q ’26 outlook while closely adhering to projected short-term swings as part of a broader topping process and NQ-100-led decline. The latest expectation was for spike lows on Feb 5/6th followed by quick rallies into Feb 11th… and then the onset of new declines.
The daily trends in the NQ-100 & S+P 500 reinforced that and projected a top and the onset of a new, sharper decline to take hold after Feb 11, ’26 – reinforcing previous analysis.
This has been expected to time the latest phase of the NQ-100 ‘roadmap’ – triggering a likely drop from Feb 11th into [reserved for subscribers]…
More importantly, the NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence & just provided a critical signal – closing the week below its now-flattening weekly 21 Low MAC for the first time since early-May ’25. (NVDA is tracing out a similar 21 MAC sequence.)
It now needs to turn the direction of that weekly 21 Low MAC down – which often occurs in the week after a close below it… and which now only necessitates an intra-week drop below 24,670/ NQH to do so. The S+P 500 is setting up a similar pattern and needs an intra-week drop below 6683/ESH and a weekly close below ~6780/ESH.
The NQ-100 now also needs a weekly close below 24,152/NQH to turn its weekly trend down. With the monthly HLS at 23,926/NQH, the range around 24,000/NQH is a prime near-term target.
Stock indices rallied into Feb 11th and reversed lower on Feb 12th, fulfilling the latest phase of the NQ-100 roadmap as it traces out a multi-month topping phase. The daily trends reinforced the outlook for a Feb 11th peak and triggered a new decline that should last into [reserved for subscribers]…
The S+P 500 concurred – peaking in lockstep with its daily 21 High MAC & MARC while fulfilling a ~10 trading-day high (Oct 15) – high (Oct 29) – high (Nov 26+) – high (Dec 11) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – (high; Feb 11, ’26) Cycle Sequence that has timed a peak every 10 trading days since Oct 15th…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have consolidated after surging into Jan 29th and confirming analysis for a multi-month low – and subsequent 1Q ’26 rally – to take hold after bottoming with Crude & Heating Oil Cycle Progressions in early-Jan ‘26.
The initial surge attacked and held weekly extreme targets with the products turning their weekly trends up, spurring analysis for a pullback into early-Feb ’26. That has occurred with all three markets providing bullish daily & weekly 21 MAC signals, positioning for a potential new surge in the coming week(s).
Crude could stretch a high into Feb 19/20th – the culmination of the latest phase of a ~14 trading-day/21 – 22-day high (Sept 26) – low (Oct 17) – low (Nov 5/6) – low (Nov 25) – low (Dec 16) – low (Jan 7) – high (Jan 29) – (high; Feb 19/20, ’26) Cycle Sequence. This could be hinting at a new round of Middle East-related struggles on Feb 19/20th.
(The ensuing phase – on March 13/16th – has a larger synergy of weekly Cycle Progressions and could culminate a larger, overall advance.)” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and poised to turn sharply lower after final highs on Feb 11 – 13th. Subsequent 1 – 2 week lows are projected for the days surrounding Feb 19 – 23, & March 6/9, ’26 – and then March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26 – as part of this unfolding pattern. They fulfilled projected lows for January 21/22nd & Feb 6/9th – reinforcing those future cycle lows.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 (ideally March 13/16th) would corroborate that and was reinforced by the initial high in late-Jan ’26 and would be corroborated by a brief peak on Feb 19/20th.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs.
Why Does Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For New Plunge?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.