Stock Indexes Congest After Quick Sell-off; Dec ’25 Cycle Highs Remain in Focus.
10-18-25 – “Stock indexes bounced after dropping sharply on October 10th and fulfilling the first phase of expectations for this month…
Stock Indices are congesting after fulfilling the first part of expectations for Oct ’25 – a projected (initial) sharp drop into Oct 10th… The S+P Midcap 400 & DJTA led the recent sell-off and both should encounter a pivotal day on Monday, Oct 20th [reserved for subscribers]…
Stock indices are producing mixed signals after their Oct 10th plunges fulfilled Oct 9th sell signals and the outlook for the first half of October… During the early-Oct ’25 sell-offs, the DJIA, S+P 500, NQ-100 & Russell 2000 were unable to turn their daily trends down (it would take daily closes below the Oct 10th lows to do so). That leaves open the potential for a spike to new highs.
The Russell 2000 just fulfilled that while the others are congesting. At the same time, the daily 21 MACs are beginning to flatten and potentially reverse… but have not yet confirmed new weakness. It would take daily closes below the Oct 10th lows to turn multiple indicators to negative. Until that occurs, the intermediate trends have not yet turned down (just neutral).” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 in most indexes – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. The Russell 2000 set a triple-top – a pattern that ultimately leads to new highs in the subsequent weeks or months (often after an intervening pullback).
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.