Stock Indexes & Cryptos Project Declines into ~Feb 6/9th as Stocks Begin Pivotal Sell-offs
02-04-26 – Eerie Parallels Approaching Closer – “The chart reprinted above is from October ’25 and was highlighted in multiple 4Q ‘25 Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications – illustrating how Bitcoin had fulfilled multi-year upside price targets while also fulfilling 4Q ’25 Cycle Progression highs and defining the 3 – 6-month downside range target at ~75K/BTC.
The first major decline was forecast to be a multi-week drop to ~80K leading into intermediate cycle lows on Nov 17 – 21, ’25.
That was fulfilled on Nov 21st and was projected to spur a bounce to at least ~97,000/BTC before a subsequent, 1Q ’26 plunge would take it down to ~70,000/BTC (other indicators projected a spike to that level, just below the 75K range target).
10-08-25 – “Bitcoin just surged to new highs – initially fulfilling that weekly trend pattern while attacking longer-term objectives that stretch up to ~127,000/BT.”
10-15-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether initially sold off after Bitcoin fulfilled its weekly trend signal by retesting its major peak while attacking longer-term objectives that stretch up to ~127,000/BT… perpetuating a ~4-Year Cycle Progression that peaks in 4Q 2025.
Ether diverged and peaked below its Aug ’25 high, reinforcing a secondary top…. As long as Bitcoin holds at or below those upside targets, it maintains the potential for a reactive drop to… ~80,000/BTC.”
10-25-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether sold off after Bitcoin fulfilled its weekly trend & attacked major upside targets (up to ~127,000/BT)… perpetuating a ~4-Year Cycle Progression that peaks in 4Q ’25 as Ether fulfilled its multi-year upside wave target and a precise 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Multiple cycles could extend a decline into Nov 17 – 21, ‘25.”
10-29-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether continue to correct after Bitcoin fulfilled its weekly trend & reached major upside targets (~122,000 – 127,000/BT) while perpetuating a ~4-Year Cycle Progression that peaks in 4Q ’25. More important, it continues to hold its July ’25 peak (despite spiking above it) – a cycle when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) set major peaks and turned decisively down.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-August – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a precise 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Multiple cycles could extend the current decline into Nov 17 – 21, ‘25.”
11-20-25 – “Both are fulfilling projections for an overall decline into Nov 17 – 21th – with Bitcoin remaining on target for an overall drop to 80,000…“
11-22-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether just fulfilled a pair of critical downside objectives – one in price and one in time. Since the early-October peak in Bitcoin, the outlook has been for a sharp decline into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a sharp drop to ~80,000/BTC during its primary decline.
On Nov 21st, Bitcoin spiked below 81,000 (80,742/BT intraday low) and fulfilled both.
That powerfully validates multi-year cycles that peaked in 4Q ’25 and projected a major decline to unfold in Bitcoin & cryptos, beginning in Nov ’25.
That ~4-year cycle portends at least a 3 – 6-month decline… and potentially longer. This drop also validates the July ’25 cycle peak in major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.)…
The next downside target is near 70,000/BT (which would entail a spike below range-trading support near 75,000). A drop to ~70,000/BT would match the magnitude of the 2021/22 decline and have Bitcoin test 2021 & ’24 highs.”
11-29-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether have rebounded after fulfilling a pair of critical downside objectives – one in price and one in time. Since the early-October peak in Bitcoin, the outlook was for a sharp decline into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a sharp drop to ~80,000/BTC during its primary decline.
On Nov 21st, Bitcoin spiked below 81,000 (80,742/ BT intraday low) and fulfilled both.
That powerfully validates multi-year cycles that peaked in 4Q ’25 and projected a major decline to unfold in Bitcoin & cryptos, beginning in Nov ’25. That ~4-year cycle portends at least a 3 – 6-month decline… and potentially longer. This drop also validates the July ’25 cycle peak in major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.).
They were projected to bounce… Initial resistance is near 97,000…“
Bitcoin rallied to 97,700/BTC – setting a secondary top on January 14th as it was reaching a myriad of rebound targets and declining resistance levels – projecting the onset of a new plunge into the first half of February ’26 and down to (at least) 70,000/BTC…
01-24-26 – “Bitcoin & Ether plunged after bouncing to their declining weekly 21 Low MACs and key levels of support turned into resistance. That is expected to spur declines back to/below their Nov ‘25 lows.
Ether could extend this decline into Feb 9 – 13, ’26 and fulfill a ~12-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression while completing a .618 decline from its ~38-week high-high-(high; Aug ’25) Cycle Progression. Bitcoin has a ~12-week low-low-low-(low; Feb 9 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression recurring at the same time.”
The Jan 14/15th high perpetuated a 14 – 15-week/100 – 105-day low (Mar 11, ’25) – low (June 23, ’25) – high (Oct 6, ’25) – (high; Jan 14 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression and ushered in the projected 1Q ’26 plunge – targeted to reach (at least) 70,000/BTC.
That is now nearing fruition as Bitcoin & Ether have almost entered the period when a low is most likely (Feb 9 – 13, ’26) as Bitcoin is approaching the next downside target at [reserved for subscribers]…
A low in the first half of Feb ’26 would also reinforce the ~21-Month high-high-low-low-(low; May ’26) Cycle Progression that has been in focus – as the downside timing target – since Oct ’25 (and before). That would perpetuate a ~3-month/~90-degree high (Aug ’25) – low (Nov ’25) – low (Feb ’26) – (low; May ’26) Cycle Progression.
The reason for reiterating all this is to remind readers of the ongoing observation of ‘eerie parallels’ – to the 1990’s & 1920’s – with respect to cryptos and the dangerously-disproportionate focus placed on them by many big tech firms – some tying their fortunes to Bitcoin more than to their core business.
It only takes a few (sometimes less) of those to start a domino-effect of selling. Combined with projections for 2026 to see some of the ‘froth’ come off the AI trade – the crypto factor could be greatly magnified.
The first phase of crypto selling unfolded, right on schedule, from early-Oct into Nov 17 – 21st. That helped produce a multi-month peak in the NQ-100.
The second phase of crypto selling is unfolding now – from mid-Jan ’26 into intermediate cycle lows just before mid-Feb ’26.
That could create some additional ‘collateral damage’ – in anticipation of the third, and potentially most impactful, phase of selling leading into multi-month cycle lows in May ’26. The coming ~week remains precarious.
Stock Indices are widening their divergence as the stronger indexes rallied into early-’26, the time when 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions recurred, as the NQ-100 continues to validate its late-Oct ’25 peak and just dropped to a new intra-year low.
In doing so, the NQ-100 also spiked down to its weekly HLS – and 3 of its latest 4 weekly HLS levels – all converging at 24,844 – 24,919/NQH. That initially fulfills what was discussed last week, regarding a ‘ricochet’ or ‘boomerang’ pattern in which a market whips back and forth between weekly extremes…
The NQ-100 also spiked down to its flattening weekly 21 Low MAC, steadily fulfilling that weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that begin in Nov/Dec ’25. And it attacked and initially held monthly support on the 3rd trading day of the new month.
It would take a daily close below 24,783/NQH to turn the new intra-month trend down and escalate this correction to a higher magnitude.
All the other indexes remain positive (S+P 500 is up/neutral on the daily basis) and need their intra-month trends to clarify the outlook into mid-Feb ‘26.
It is more likely that a high (…lower high in NQ-100) is set around Feb 12/13th – the next phase of a 38 – 41-day/28 – 29 trading-day low (Sept 2, ‘25) – low (Oct 10) – low (Nov 20) – low (Jan 2, ‘26) – (high; Feb 12/13, ’26) Cycle Progression in the DJIA.
A high on Feb 11 – 13th would also fulfill a ~3-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the Russell 2000 (as well as an over-arching ~6-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression) and an ~11 trading-day low-low-high (Dec 10) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – (high; Feb 12/13, ’26) Cycle Sequence.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions that project multi-month peaks to take hold in Jan/Feb ’26 – ideally late-Jan ’26 in the S+P 500 – and usher in new declines. The NQ-100 fulfilled multi-year upside objectives (timing & price) in late-Oct ’25 and set a likely 6 – 12-month peak at that time, leading this topping phase. The DJIA projects a peak for ~Feb 11 – 13th.
Subsequent intermediate lows are projected for the days surrounding February 6/9th & March 6/9th, ’26… as part of this overall sequence. The NQ-100 was/is projected to set a series of 1 – 2 week lows on Jan 21/22nd, Feb 6/9, Feb 19 – 23, & March 6/9, ’26 as part of this unfolding pattern. Subsequent lows are also likely around March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that and was reinforced by the initial high in late-Jan ‘26. That projects a future peak for March 9 – 13, ’26 – the completion of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression. The GSCI concurs.
How Could NQ-100 Confirm Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak?
Did S+P 500 Fulfill Projected Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
How are Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.