Stock Indexes Divergence Setting Stage for New Sell-off; NQ-100 Projects Oct 28/29th Peak.
10-29-25 – “Stock Indices remain mixed and continue to trace out the type of divergence and dichotomy that is so common around important turning points. That is why significant shifts often unfold in a stealthy manner like late-2024/early-2025.
In that instance, the DJTA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 set their highest highs in late-Nov ’24. The DJIA concurred but spiked to a slight new high in early-Dec ’25. However, the stronger indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) kept hovering near their highs & did not set final highs until almost 3 months later.
The current case has a few similarities. For starters, the DJTA set a multi-month peak in late-July ’25 and has been slowly going through a topping process (setting a series of lower highs) as other indexes are setting equal highs or higher highs.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the Nasdaq-100, which was set up to rally into Oct 28/29th and fulfill a 13 – 14 trading day high-low-high-high Cycle Sequence.
It has done that but would not signal a reversal lower until a daily close below 25,500/NQZ.
In the middle, the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap have sold off this week with the Midcap remaining in a ~2.5-month trading range that has support at the Aug 21st & Oct 10th lows… For now, stock indexes remain mixed…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 in most indexes – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The NQ-100 has daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak is likely. Subsequent price action should clarify how significant that would be.
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.