Stock Indexes Enter Vulnerable Period; Quick Sell-off Expected.
10-08-25 – “Stock Indices are mixed – as is so often the case – with the weaker indexes (S+P Midcap & Russell 2000) still holding at or below their Sept ’25 highs as the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 rallied to slightly new highs. The DJTA is following its own distinct cycles… as is the norm.
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 turned their intra-month trends up while the others remain neutral…
One intriguing pattern has been unfolding in the DJIA, which has been ‘riding’ along/above the rising daily 21 High MAC since August 13th. The DJIA has treated it like an ascending trendline, retreating to retest it a ~dozen times but never closing below it (Sept 25th was the closest when the DJIA closed at 45,947 while the 21 High MAC was at 45,944).
Usually, a market will retest this level a couple times and then catapult higher. However, no ‘catapulting’ has occurred and the multiple tests are beginning to warn of vulnerability. It would take a daily close below that level – currently at 46,403 but likely near 46,450 tomorrow – to signal weakness…
Until then, that index is in neutral territory – waiting for new signals in either direction.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. The Russell 2000 set a triple-top – a pattern that ultimately leads to new highs in the subsequent weeks or months (often after an intervening pullback).
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.