Stock Indexes Fulfilling Feb ’26 Sell Signals & Projected Plunges into March 9 – 13th!
03-11-26 – “Over the past two decades, stock indexes have suffered multiple multi-month sell-offs that have mostly adhered to a version of Elliott’s ‘Rule of Alternation’ – in which successive ‘corrections’ do not usually follow the same corrective pattern.
This will be elaborated in a future INSIIDE Track, but consider how the 2015/2016 & 2011 sell-offs contrasted the 2007 – 2009 decline. Then there was the late-2018 drop. The early-2020 Covid-19 plunge was different from that – though just as quick – and was followed by a more extended decline in 2022.
The Tariff-related 2024 plunge was similar to early 2020, hinting that a 2026 decline – if it evolves into a multi-month affair by turning respective weekly trends down – could be more similar (drawn out) to 2022.
Though this is NOT the type of analogy on which to formulate specific trading strategies, it could be giving some general clues about 2026.
The sell-offs culminating in 2018, 2020, 2022 & 2024 also reinforce a more general form of the 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions as well. More on these topics to follow…
Stock Indices fulfilled the latest phase of projected declines, with the S+P 500 testing and initially holding pivotal support at 6636 – 6650/ESM, where the Nov ’25 low and the current week’s LLS (often hit in the week after an HLS is hit) converged. It initially bottomed at 6631.5/ESM and then bounced to its declining daily 21 Low MAC – a textbook pattern…
The test of the weekly HLS in the S+P 500 (on March 6th) portends an impending low in the 1 – 2 weeks that follow (March 9 – 20th) – aligning with diverse Cycle Progressions.
Reinforcing evolving bearishness, the S+P 500 & DJIA joined the NQ-100 in closing below its weekly 21 Low MAC on March 6th. The S+P 500 needed to drop below 6680/ESM (this week) in order to turn the 21 Low MAC direction down. It did that on March 9th.
Many stocks & indexes have initially fulfilled projections for a decline into this pivotal time frame, with the greatest synergy of Cycle Progressions and timing indicators converging on March 9 – 16, ’26.
By dropping into March 9th, stock indexes initially fulfilled a ~16-week high-low-low-low-(low; March 6 – 13/16, ’26) Cycle Progression, a ~19-week decline in the NQ-100 (from its late-Oct ’25 peak; the same duration of decline that most indexes completed in early-April ’25) and a .618 retracement in time…
On a broader basis, the DJIA has set multi-month lows every 25 – 26 weeks since Oct ’23 and has an overlapping 52-week low-low-(low; April 3 – 10, ’26) Cycle Progression that both recur in April ’26. That is when a larger-magnitude low could take hold. The DJIA has reached 2 – 4-week downside targets but maintains a 1 – 2 month target near [reserved for subscribers]… short positions should have been exited when 6671/ESM was hit on March 9th, w/avg gains of about $18,000/contract. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes have plunged after spiking higher into early-March ’26 while retesting their Oct ’25 highs – where key levels of multi-month resistance remain. As stated before, it would take weekly closes above those levels to signal new strength. Until then, a multi-month trading range remains in effect… and has now spurred a drop back toward its low…
Consistent with what has been addressed in INSIIDE Track since early-Jan ’26, the PHLX Housing Index has plunged after peaking on Feb 12/13th – along with the DJIA – and completing the first 40-day ‘period of testing’ in 2026 while fulfilling a consistent ~6-week low-low-low-low-(high; Feb 9 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression.
Friday’s weak employment data reinforced the outlook for a 2026 recession – likely to accompany stagflation – and helped plunge the $HGX back to/ below its Jan ’26 low. A weekly close below that level (660.24) would turn the intra-year trend down and project selling into mid-2026.
The Dollar Index resumed its rally after pulling back to its rising daily 21 High MAC on Feb 23rd – 27th. This rally was likely to extend into the current week, rebounding .618 of its Nov – Jan ’26 decline and fulfilling a ~16-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. It is also nearing the level of its declining monthly 21 Low MAC (cash basis).
From a broader perspective, a peak in March ’26 would fulfill a ~14-month high-high-high-(high; March ’26) Cycle Progression and a 7 – 7.5-month high-high-high-high-high-(
[**If a peak is set in March ’26, both of those cycles would project an overall decline into May ’27. Among other things, that could have an inflationary impact.]…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have continued to surge after fulfilling analysis for a major low in Jan ’26 – when a 9 – 10-month high-high-high-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Progression and an ~8-month low-low-low-low-low-(low; Jan ’26) Cycle Sequence bottomed and projected a 1Q ’26 surge.
The early-Jan ‘26 lows also fulfilled Heating Oil projections for a 5th consecutive low on an ~8-month interval – with the previous lows set in early-May ’23, early-Jan & early-Sept ’24 & early-May ‘25… and reinforced the outlook for a powerful 1Q ’26 rally – along with Crude – that should stretch into March ‘26.
They could still see higher prices into March 13/16th, the ideal time for a peak when multiple weekly Cycle Progressions converge. That has been the ideal upside target since late-Dec/early-Jan ’26… and is on the verge of being fulfilled.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are reinforcing multi-month cycle highs (and sell signals) on Feb 11 – 13th. The S+P 500 led the latest reversal and generated an additional sell signal on Feb 25th. A sharp decline into March 9 – 13, ’26 was projected (and has initially been fulfilled)… as part of the overall outlook for February – July ’26. (Will mid-2026 Fulfill Related Analysis??)
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into March 13/16th would corroborate that and was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals subsequent action. The Middle East is now confirmed as the catalyst.
That projected a surge into March 13/16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
How Low Will Feb 11/12th & Feb 25th Sell Signals Drive Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project mid-March ’26… and for July ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing Outlook into March 13/16th?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.