Stock Indexes on Track for Overall Rally into Dec ’25; 1 – 2 Week Pullback Would Corroborate.
09-17-25 – “The DJIA did spike higher and attacked its weekly resistance after the NQ-100 had done the same thing on Tuesday. The S+P could see a spike to/above 6705/ESZ before putting in a 1 – 2 week peak. If these indexes spike higher and then reverse lower tomorrow, they could trigger a new 3 – 5 day decline.
One index that had given some mixed signals over the past week is the DJTA. Today’s action appears to have clarified the 1 – 2-week outlook.
Leading into this week, there was a chance the DJTA could muster up a final spike high into next week IF it traded higher on Sept 15th & 16th and IF it turned the intra-month trend up with a daily close above 15,882/DJTA. It did not do either.
Instead, it has traded lower into mid-week and magnified that by triggering an outside-day/2 Close Reversal Combo lower today after spiking up to its flattening daily 21 High MAC, month-opening high (intra-month trend resistance), and daily LHR. It closed the day below its declining daily 21 Low MAC, reinforcing that downward reversal signal.
[The S+P Midcap 400 generated a similar outside-day/2 Close Reversal Combo lower, leaving its Sept 11th peak intact.]
As a result, it could extend its decline into next week and perpetuate an ~8-week low-low-low-low-(low; Sept 22 – 26, ’25) Cycle Sequence. A daily close below 15,400/DJTA would corroborate.
If a drop below 15,000/DJTA materializes before the end of the month, it would also perpetuate a ~5-month high-high-low-high-high-high-
That would also be the midpoint of an over-arching ~10-month low-low-low-high-low-high-low-
The real key – for the subsequent 1 – 2-month outlook – would be whether or not the Transports can generate a weekly close below 15,054/DJTA – on Sept 19th or 26th… With the much-anticipated 1/4-point interest rate cut out of the way, the markets require new (future) good news to spur further gains. Otherwise, it might result in some ‘selling the news’ in late-Sept.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. The DJTA could reinforce that with an intermediate low in the coming week(s).
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.