Stock Indexes Positive; Portend Add’l Upside & Overall Rally into Dec ‘25.
09-13-25 – “Stock indexes remain in multi-month uptrends but have mostly fulfilled the upside objectives stemming from the early-April cycle lows & reversal signals. The NQ-100 closed above its late-July high after holding it for ~6 weeks. That 1 – 2 month peak reinforces cycles coming into play later in 2025…
Stock Indices remain positive as they fulfill multi-month upside objectives in time & price. While that does not automatically signal a top, it does show the overwhelming majority of upside potential – on a corresponding basis – is fulfilled.
In this case, that means 3 – 6 months’ worth of upside targets – stemming from the early-April ’25 lows & buy signals – have been met (and/or exceeded)…
Other indexes, like the DJTA, have lagged but could be showing signs of a new 1 – 2 week rally IF it can turn the intra-month trend up with a daily close above 15,882/DJTA. The daily trend has remained up since mid-August.
More recently, the DJTA pulled back to its now-rising weekly 21 High MAC and initially held (it did the same thing in late-July/early-August). And, it is in the midst of an ~8-week low-low-low-low-(high; Sept 22 – 26, ’25) Cycle Progression that will continue to project a new rally until/unless a daily close below 15,050/DJTA materializes.
Both the weekly & daily trend argue for new multi-month highs and a rally into late-Sept ’25 would complete the third successive advance of ~5 months (~24 weeks) while rebounding 1.272 (2DGR) times the preceding decline.
If a new multi-month high is set in late-Sept ’25, it would also perpetuate a ~5-month high-high-low-high-high-high-
Much of this, however, hinges on the DJTA rallying in the first half of the coming week.
Stock indices are mostly positive and in intra-month uptrends that are reaching their upside price & timing objectives (monthly resistance and mid-month).” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, though in the midst of some congestion. They fulfilled late-July/early-August ’25 (intermediate) cycle highs and are now turning focus to Dec ‘25/Jan ‘26 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.