Stock Indexes Project Decisive Tops on ~Feb 11th; Sharp Declines into March ‘26!
02-11-26 – “Stock Indices are reinforcing their divergence with the NQ-100 (and to a lesser extent, the S+P 500) repeatedly fulfilling downside objectives and Cycle Progression lows while the DJIA, DJTA, IDX & Russell 2K remain positive as they fulfill contrasting analysis for rallies into Feb 11 – 13th (CP highs).
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 plunged into Feb 6th & then reversed higher in line with daily Cycle Progression lows that had been the focus for several weeks. They attacked their weekly HLS levels (extreme downside weekly targets) – corroborating other timing indicators while fulfilling the outlook for a weekly ‘ricochet’ or ‘boomerang’ pattern, leading into Feb 5/6th.
The S+P 500 spiked down to its monthly support & weekly HLS (extreme downside target for last week) and its weekly 21 Low MAC (6771/ESH) – while retesting & holding its mid-Dec ’25 low. That was the ideal level for an initial low & rebound and was reinforced by the daily trend pattern.
It bottomed while fulfilling a related 12 trading day low (Jan 2) – low (Jan 21) – (low; Feb 6, ’26) Cycle Progression on Feb 6th – the same day the daily trend indicator portended a low…
As equities were preparing for that low, the stronger indexes were already identifying when & where the next subsequent high should take place… as they set higher lows on Feb 5/6th and perpetuated the divergence that has prevailed for months.
As stated on Feb 4th & 5th, it was/is more likely that a higher high in most indexes and a lower high in NQ-100 would be set on ~Feb 11 – 13th – the latest phase of a 38 – 41-day/28 – 29 trading-day low (Sept 2, ‘25) – low (Oct 10) – low (Nov 20) – low (Jan 2, ‘26) – (high; Feb 11 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression in the DJIA.
A high on Feb 11 – 13th would also fulfill a ~3-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the Russell 2000 (as well as an over-arching ~6-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression) and an ~11 trading-day low-low-high (Dec 10) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – (high; Feb 12/13, ’26) Cycle Sequence.
The S+P 500 has maintained a similar ~10 trading-day high (Oct 15) – high (Oct 29) – high (Nov 26+) – high (Dec 11) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – (high; Feb 11, ’26) Cycle Sequence that has timed a peak every 10 trading days since Oct 15th… and may have just done so on Feb 11th.
The daily trend pattern in the S+P 500 & NQ-100 corroborates that. Both previously turned their daily trends down (the S+P 500 did so on Feb 5th, helping to pinpoint Feb 6th for an initial spike low followed by a multi-day reactive bounce) and have rallied enough to neutralize those daily downtrends.
However, they would not turn those daily trends up until daily closes above 7001/ESH & 25,465/NQH.
Until that occurs, the intermediate trends portend a new decline to take hold at any time – in lockstep with what has been described for the NQ-100 since mid-January ‘26:
1-14-26 – “The NQ-100 is likely to set a series of lows around Jan 21/22, Feb 6/9, and Feb 19 – 22, ’26, based on corroborating daily & weekly Cycle Progressions.” — Jan 14, ’26 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Broadening the perspective a little, the NQ-100 continues to trace out a topping process that has been unfolding since late-Oct ’25. The weekly trend and the weekly 21 MAC have been in focus…
Last week, the NQ-100 spiked below its now-flattening weekly 21 Low MAC – for the first time since early-May ’25 – but did not close the week below that support. It still needs a weekly close below that level (~24,980/NQH), and to turn its direction down, in order to confirm a larger-magnitude reversal lower.
As explained since early-January, this current week is the second in a series of 4 weeks (part of a larger, overall series of 8 – 9 weeks) in which the inversely-correlated weekly 21 Low MARC would steadily rise – making it much easier for the corresponding weekly 21 Low MAC to turn down.
An intra-week drop below 24,488/NQH would accomplish that this week. Next week, it would only take a drop below 24,670/NQH. On Feb 23 – 27, ’26, the NQ-100 would only need to drop below 24,885/NQH to turn its weekly 21 Low MAC direction down.
It would not be surprising to see a weekly trend reversal (down) occur within 1 – 2 weeks of that weekly 21 MAC signal, so multiple levels of downside confirmation could occur in February ’26.
The action of the next 1 – 2 days could provide some additional, valuable clues to this overall outlook.
And overarching that are the ‘eerie parallels’ – to the 1990’s & 1920’s – that have been discussed since early-2025… with the corresponding focus on 1Q & 2Q 2026 as the time when their fulfillment could come to fruition. Those parallels are to cryptos and the dangerously-disproportionate focus placed on them by many big tech firms – some tying their fortunes to Bitcoin more than to their core business.
It only takes a few (sometimes less) of those to start a domino-effect of selling. Combined with projections for 2026 to see some of the ‘froth’ come off the AI trade – the crypto factor could be greatly magnified.
The first phase of crypto selling unfolded, right on schedule, from early-Oct into Nov 17 – 21st. That helped produce a multi-month peak in the NQ-100.
The second phase of crypto selling is unfolding now – from mid-Jan ’26 into intermediate cycle lows just before mid-Feb ’26.
That could create some additional ‘collateral damage’ – in anticipation of the third, and potentially most impactful, phase of selling leading into multi-month cycle lows in May ’26.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and poised to turn sharply lower after final highs on Feb 11 – 13th. Subsequent 1 – 2 week lows are projected for the days surrounding Feb 19 – 23, & March 6/9, ’26 – and then March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26 – as part of this unfolding pattern. They fulfilled projected lows for January 21/22nd & Feb 6/9th – reinforcing those future cycle lows.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that and was reinforced by the initial high in late-Jan ‘26.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs.
Why Does Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For New Plunge?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.