Stock Indexes Project Initial Drop into ~Feb 9th & Larger Drop into ~March 9th, ‘26!
01-30-26 – “Equities have rallied after their early-April ‘25 lows fulfilled 17-Year Cycle analysis for ~30% plunges from their highs. That was projected to spur rallies to new highs with a final peak ideally stretching into late-Jan 2026.
A top is now likely…
Stock Indices have fulfilled the overall outlook – since 2Q ’25 – to see a series of highs in late-July, late-Sept & late-Nov ’25 with a final high stretching into late-January ’26.
A peak in late-Jan ’26 would also fulfill the recurrence of ~2-Year & ~4-Year Cycle Progressions that converge in 1Q/January ’26 and portend a larger sell-off following those (anticipated) late-January ’26 peaks.
As discussed in the opening comments, this could have a close correlation to inflationary extremes.
The latest (Jan 28, ‘26) Weekly Re-Lay Alert explained several near-term indicators that were also pinpointing Jan 27/28th as the time for a top in stock indexes (and a dangerous time for other markets like Gold & Silver)… and the onset of a potentially sharp decline into the week of Feb 9 – 13, ‘26:
1-28-26 – “Stock Indices have reached late-Jan ’26, the convergence of 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions – and corroborating ~2-month Cycle Progressions that were projecting a series of ascending highs in late-July, late-Sept, late-Nov ’25… and finally late-Jan ’26. It’s now decision time.
…the S+P 500 is poised to set yet another peak at the same interval of time (10 trading days or approximately 2 weeks) it has done so for the past 3 months… The same Jan 14th Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated that cycle – which had projected a 1 – 2 week peak to take hold on January 12/13th… The subsequent phase of that ~10 trading-day cycle just transpired – on January 27/28th – and could have timed another… The S+P spiked above its previous peak but did not close above it, displaying an initial ‘failure’.
More importantly, it attacked and held monthly resistance AND weekly resistance during mid-week… the S+P 500 also spiked up to its weekly LHR (extreme upside weekly target) – while the NQ-100 did the same thing – and could be tracing out another ‘ricochet’ or ‘boomerang’ pattern after testing and holding its weekly HLS last week. If so, that would portend a sharp sell-off…
If so, that could lead to a new round of selling that perfectly dovetails with the weekly 21 MAC sequence and its inversely-correlated 21 MARC in the NQ-100. Those indicators identified the first part of February as a vulnerable time for stock indexes… aligning perfectly with when the 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions would begin to turn down…
One final note: Gold, Silver and the US Dollar are entering a dangerous period…”
This (potential) Jan 28th peak comes 3 months/ 90 degrees from the late-Oct ‘25 peak in the NQ-100, which was 3 months/90 degrees from a multi-month peak in the DJTA in late-July (28th), ‘25.
That context is key since the NQ-100 continues to hold below its late-Oct ‘25 peak, indicating it is poised to enter a higher-magnitude ‘C’ wave drop.
Nov/Dec ‘25 had been projected to time the initial shift in several markets, including key stock indexes and cryptos. The NQ-100 – and the intensifying relationship between major tech companies & their affinity for cryptos – has shown some initial signs of transition… but not yet confirmed a top.
NQ-100 Sequence
The NQ-100 has been leading a topping process and is tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that could usher in a Feb/Mar ‘26 decline.
The Nasdaq-100 set a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – fulfilling a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly and even multi-year cycles and timing objectives.
On a multi-year basis, that Oct ’25 peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression as it was setting that peak.
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – triggering the first technical price signal that was needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and signal a multi-month reversal lower.
Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak.
The NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month top and weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence while increasing the synergy of multi-month downside targets near 23,250/NQH. That was reinforced by the monthly HLS for Jan ’26 – at 23,224/NQH.
That 21 MAC sequence continues to unfold and would be powerfully reinforced with a weekly close below the 21 Low MAC (~25,000/NQH currently) and a reversal down of that 21 Low MAC direction.
The first two weeks of February ’26 have been the focus for that sequence with the period of January 29th – February 9th representing a ’Danger Zone’ in these markets, based on a large number of corroborating indicators.
To reiterate from the January issue:
1-06-26 – “Once the month of February ‘26 begins, that inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will surge rapidly – making it much easier for the corresponding weekly 21 MAC to drop (or accelerate lower).
A significant convergence of weekly timing indicators – including a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (28 – 29 weeks up, 14 – 15 weeks down) come into play on February 2 – 9, 2026 – the culmination of the first 40-day (‘testing’) period of the new year and possibly the culmination of an initial multi-month decline.”
An intra-week drop below 24,488/NQH on Feb 9 – 13, ’26 would fulfill that sequence & reinforce subsequent Cycle Progressions converging a month later (March 9 – 13, ‘26) – when a more significant low could take hold. That could be the culmination of an initial sell-off beginning now.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month traders and investors can lighten up on long positions in anticipation of a 1Q ‘26 sell-off.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions that project multi-month peaks to take hold in Jan/Feb ’26 – ideally in late-Jan ’26 – and usher in new declines. The NQ-100 fulfilled multi-year upside objectives (timing & price) in late-Oct ’25 and set a likely 6 – 12-month peak at that time, leading this topping phase.
Other indexes are expected to set final highs in 1Q ’26 – some now and others in February ’26 – as this overall topping process unfolds. Subsequent intermediate lows are projected for the days surrounding February 6/9th & March 6/9th, ’26… as part of this overall sequence. The NQ-100 was/is projected to set a series of 1 – 2 week lows on Jan 21/22nd, Feb 6/9, Feb 19 – 23 (corrected), & March 6/9, ’26 as part of this unfolding pattern. Subsequent lows are also possible around March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26.
The outlook for a major low in energy prices in January ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that and is being reinforced by the potential for an initial high in late-Jan ‘26. That would project a future peak for March 9 – 13, ’26 – the completion of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 13, ’26) Cycle Progression. The GSCI concurs.
How Could NQ-100 Confirm Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak?
Is S+P 500 Fulfilling Projected Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
How are Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.