Stock Indexes Project Rallies into ~Feb 11th; Energy Markets Portend 1Q ’26 Surge!
02-07-26 – “Stock indexes reinforced ongoing divergence with the NQ-100 fulfilling analysis for a sharp drop into ~Feb 6th as the stronger indexes remained positive and are fulfilling their contrasting outlook for rallies from Feb 4/5th into Feb 11 – 13th. The daily trends in ESH & NQH should be important filters this week… The Dollar rebounded from its spike to new multi-year lows… as Energy markets reinforced the potential for larger magnitude rallies in 1Q ‘26…
Stock Indices are reinforcing their divergence with the NQ-100 (and to a lesser extent, the S+P 500) continually fulfilling downside objectives and Cycle Progression lows while the DJIA, DJTA, IDX & Russell 2K remain positive as they fulfill contrasting analysis for rallies into Feb 11 – 13th.
The S+P 500 & NQ-100 – after completing a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo sell signal on Jan 31st – plunged into Feb 6th & then reversed higher in line with daily Cycle Progression lows.
They also attacked their weekly HLS levels (extreme downside weekly targets) – fulfilling the outlook for a weekly ‘ricochet’ or ‘boomerang’ pattern, leading into Feb 5/6th.
While the NQ-100 maintained its much weaker profile, the S+P 500 spiked down to its monthly support & weekly HLS (extreme downside target for this past week) and its weekly 21 Low MAC (6771/ESH) – while retesting & holding its mid-Dec ’25 low. It bottomed while fulfilling a related 12 trading day low (Jan 2) – low (Jan 21) – (low; Feb 6, ’26) Cycle Progression on Feb 6th.
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 spiked below its now-flattening weekly 21 Low MAC – for the first time since early-May ’25 – but did not close the week below that support. It still needs a weekly close below that level (~24,980/NQH), and to turn its direction down, in order to confirm a larger-magnitude reversal lower.
The contrasting weekly 21 High MAC will be around 25,920/NQH and is critical resistance.
Stock indices remain widely divergent with the NQ-100 spiking lower into Feb 4 – 6th and fulfilling the potential for an additional spike low on Feb 5/6th in sync with its daily Cycle Progressions and other indicators – while the other indexes remained strong and are fulfilling their potential for contrasting rallies into Feb 11 – 13th.
The NQ-100 was also able to signal escalation of its broader decline, fulfilling what was detailed in the Feb 4th Alert. The S+P 500 turned its daily trend down on Feb 5th (the day after closing below its daily 21 Low MAC while turning its direction down), increasing the likelihood for a multi-day spike low on Feb 6th & reactive rally.
In contrast, the other indexes remained positive – on track for rallies into ~mid-month. These rallies should stretch into at least Feb 11th…
The Dollar Index continues to rebound after plunging to its weekly HLS levels and (along with the weekly trend) signaling that an initial multi-week low was taking hold in sync with a ~5-week low-high-low-(low; Jan 27th) Cycle Sequence.
It turned its daily & intra-month trends up, signaling that additional upside is possible…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil pulled back after surging into Jan 29th and confirming analysis for a multi-month low – and subsequent 1Q ’26 rally – to take hold after bottoming with Crude & Heating Oil Cycle Progressions in early-Jan ‘26.
The initial surge attacked and held weekly extreme targets with the products turning their weekly trends up, spurring analysis for a pullback into early-Feb ’26. That has occurred with all three markets providing bullish daily & weekly 21 MAC signals, positioning for a potential new surge in the coming week(s).” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and poised to turn sharply lower after final highs on Feb 11 – 13th. Subsequent 1 – 2 week lows are projected for the days surrounding Feb 19 – 23, & March 6/9, ’26 – and then March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26 – as part of this unfolding pattern. They already fulfilled projected lows for January 21/22nd & Feb 6/9th – reinforcing those future cycle lows.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 would corroborate that and was reinforced by the initial high in late-Jan ‘26. That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. The GSCI concurs.
Why Should Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?
Did S+P 500 Fulfill Projected Late-Jan ’26 Peak?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.