Stock Indexes Reflecting ‘Eerie Parallels’; NQ-100 Fulfils Oct 28/29th Cycle Peak.
10-30-25 – “Outlook 2025/2026 – Foreshadows… and 4-Shadows II
Every stock market plunge, of the past 50 years, has had its warning signs. They have not occurred in a vacuum with sudden stock selling coming out of nowhere. Even the early-2025 ‘Liberation Day’ related plummet was presaged months prior… and ultimately bottomed exactly when & where anticipated.
The key is to recognize and heed those warning signs.
The Golden Crystal Ball
Most fundamental events are also revealed by the technical action of related markets… days, weeks or sometimes months in advance. A perfect example just occurred with Jerome Powell’s post-rate-cut comments about another rate cut in December being ‘not a foregone conclusion’.
While seemingly innocuous, that mindset was a shock to the system to many traders that were certain the Fed would cut rates in 3 or 4 consecutive meetings (the 2nd of which was this past week).
However, Gold had already identified this shift with its cyclical & technical action. To recognize that, a trader must also recognize what has been conveyed in these publications for many years: The expectation of future interest rates is the most consistent correlation to Gold’s price movement…
…more than inflationary expectations…
…more than war or geopolitical conflict…
…even more than US Dollar action!…
Roaring ‘20s Redux?
2025/2026 has maintained the unique potential to see dual fulfilment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines. The first began in late-’24 & early-’25 and was forecast to bottom in late-March/early-April ‘25 after a 25 – 30% plunge. That is history.
The second was/is expected to take hold in late-’25/early-’26 and lead to a significant drop into a potential major low in 2026. One of the potential triggers for that plunge was described in Feb ’25 and involved the risky bet that major tech companies were/are making on Bitcoin/cryptos.
That analysis (excerpted on page 4) was reiterated and elaborated in the March ‘25 INSIIDE Track:
2-27-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin and the move toward decentralized banking.
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000…
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
However, this issue’s focus is … on a few eerie similarities between the 2020’s and two of the more notorious examples of speculative ‘over-zealousness’…
Déjà vu?
The 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s. Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes. No one should ever expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued. And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top – exacerbating the impact of the ensuing decline…
In late-2023/early-2024, the SEC approved the launch of multiple Bitcoin & Crypto ETFs. In the final months of 2024, the public dove in with reckless abandon… just in time for the top…
Those speculators were also invited/enticed into piling into other ‘shell’ investments (for lack of a better term) – like NFTs and meme coins. The Crypto Carnival was in full swing… The more things change, the more they stay the same!“ — End March ’25 INSIIDE Track excerpt
After sharp drops into April ’25, cryptos and many related stocks signaled a new rally into July ’25. However, the stock that is at the forefront of this ’shell’ analogy – MSTR – had signaled a major top in Nov ’24 and was portending a secondary (lower) peak for July ’25, as part of a major decline.
Its Nov ’24 surge to 543.0 completed a wave ’V’ advance and turned focus to the 4th wave of lesser degree support – the May & Aug ’24 lows near 100.0. If that ‘proxy stock’ drops to its 4WoLD support – fulfilling normal wave structure retracements – it would be shedding ~75 – 80% of its peak value Could that have a domino effect?…
Stock Indices remain in overall uptrends that could stretch, in some indexes, into 1Q 2026. They were expected to see a series of highs in late-July, late-Sept & late-Nov ’25 with a final high potentially stretching into January ’26. In the interim, however, a lot could still unfold.
Most recently, they fulfilled analysis for a quick sharp drop into Oct 10th but were not able to turn their daily trends down at that time. That has led to a rally back to their highs…
For now, stock indexes remain mixed… The broader outlook still anticipates another substantial decline in 2026 – potentially a second fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines – but there need to be additional warning signs developing in the coming months.
One of those could occur with an accelerated decline in Bitcoin, following the lead of many other cryptos. While this might not be the textbook situation for a stock market correlation, there are two factors that could create a domino-effect of selling at some point in 2026 (maybe early 2026)
- Currently, 10 stocks account for over 40% of the gains in the overall market… similar to several equity peaks in the past decade. Most are tech/AI-oriented stocks.
- The new ‘Roaring ‘20’s’ have been characterized by exponentially-leveraged speculation on Bitcoin & other cryptos… with some of these tech/AI companies committing a significant portion of capital into cryptos (instead of their core business).
Once the snowball starts rolling down the hill (which might have already begun), it is hard to stop it. The question becomes ’How much pain will those companies be able to bear?’ Will declining crypto holdings begin to impact stock prices?
MSTR has already lost over 40% from its July ’25 peak and over 50% from its Nov ’24 peak. The intra-year lows, near 230, could represent the ’point of critical mass’ if broken. As a result, they are a key focal point for this potential scenario.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, expected to extend into Dec ’25 in most indexes – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. Subsequent price action should clarify how significant that would be.
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.