Stock Indexes Validate Feb 11/12th Sell Signals; DJIA Joins in as Bearish Cycles Take Hold!
02-18-26 – “Stock Indices are continually corroborating the 1Q ’26 outlook while closely adhering to projected short-term swings as part of a broader topping process led by the NQ-100. The latest expectation was for spike lows on Feb 5/6th followed by quick rallies into Feb 11th… and then the onset of new declines…
The daily trend indicators in the NQ-100 & S+P 500 reinforced that and projected a top and the onset of a new, sharper decline to take hold after Feb 11, ’26 – corroborating Cycle Progression analysis. That was expected to time the latest phase of the NQ-100 ‘roadmap’ – triggering a likely drop from Feb 11th into [reserved for subscribers]…
More importantly, the NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence & just provided a pair of critical signals. On Feb 13th, the NQ-100 closed the week below its flattening weekly 21 Low MAC for the first time since early-May ’25… focusing attention on the current week.
On Feb 17th, the NQ-100 validated that focus and dropped below the level of its weekly 21 Low MARC – turning the direction of the corresponding 21 Low MAC down. (The cash index has not yet done this, needing a drop below 24,186/NQ.)
Meanwhile, the daily charts are a step ahead in a similar 21 MAC reversal sequence. After dropping below its daily 21 Low MAC, the NQ-100 quickly turned the direction of that down – leading to the sharp drop into Feb 6th. The rebound into Feb 11th retested the now-declining daily 21 Low MAC… and today’s action just repeated that pattern…
The S+P 500 is adding some credence after peaking in sync with its daily 21 High MAC & MARC while fulfilling a ~10 trading-day high (Oct 15) – high (Oct 29) – high (Nov 26+) – high (Dec 11) – high (Dec 26) – high (Jan 12/13) – high (Jan 28) – (high; Feb 11, ’26) Cycle Sequence that has timed a peak every 10 trading days since Oct 15th…
Other indicators have, or soon could, corroborate…
The DJIA is one of those.
After rallying into mid-month and spiking above monthly resistance, the DJIA has retreated – creating the potential for an Intra-month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at start of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end). A late-Feb drop below 48,673/DJIA is needed to complete that pattern.
In the interim, the DJIA dropped right to its daily 21 Low MAC while twice neutralizing its daily uptrend. A daily close below 49,084/DJIA is needed to turn the daily trend down AND close below the daily 21 Low MAC… and confirm a 1 – 2 month peak.
The DJIA is creating some synergy of weekly HLS levels at 47,858 – 47,999 – coinciding with the 2026 intra-year low (intra-year trend support) at 47,853/DJIA. That range could be tested quickly if/when the daily trend turns down.
The Russell 2000 is tracing out its own daily trend and daily 21 MAC reversal sequence but needs a daily close below 2607/QRH to confirm weakness…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are fulfilling the overall outlook for an initial 1Q ’26 surge… linked to likely Middle East tension… and could see a sharp spike higher in energy prices.
Natural Gas extended its decline and would not show signs of new strength until a daily close above 3.360/NGM. The UNG (ETF) is tracing out an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern with ‘right shoulder’ support near 11.55/UNG.
While that indicator does not provide a concise timing target, it would project an ultimate rally to ~24.00/UNG (also the March ’25 high) IF ~11.50 holds as support and IF a weekly close above 17.00/UNG subsequently emerges.
(The next phase of a related 50 – 56-day low-low-low-high-high (Jan 30, ’26) – (high; March 23 – 27, ’26) Cycle Progression recurs in late-March ’26.)” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling a myriad of multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and poised to turn sharply lower after final highs on Feb 11 – 13th. Subsequent 1 – 2 week lows are projected for the days surrounding Feb 19 – 23, & March 6/9, ’26 – and then March 20/23rd & April 6 – 9, ’26 – as part of this unfolding pattern. They fulfilled projected lows for January 21/22nd & Feb 6/9th – reinforcing those future cycle lows.
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincides with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in 2026, potentially stretching into 2027. An oil price rally into mid-March ’26 (ideally March 13/16th) would corroborate that and was reinforced by the initial high in late-Jan ’26 and would be corroborated by a brief peak on Feb 19/20th.
That projects a future peak for March 9 – 16, ’26 – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive ~11 – 12-week rally and a corroborating ~6-week low-high (Jan 28/29, ’26) – (high; March 9 – 16, ’26) Cycle Progression. (If this is a more significant impulse wave, it could/should rally beyond that wave symmetry.) The GSCI concurs. Natural Gas could lag and wait until late-March ’26 to set a corresponding peak.
Why Did Feb 11th Usher in Bearish Phase in Stock Indexes?
What Does S+P 500 Late-Jan ’26 Peak Project For Plunge into March ‘26?
How are Bullish Oil/Energy Cycles Reinforcing 1Q ’26 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.