Stock Indices Diverging; NQ-100 Validates Oct ‘25 Cycle Peak; Others Focus on Dec ‘25.
11-11-25 – “Stock Indices fulfilled near-term analysis for a drop into Nov 7th and have since bounced after most were unable to turn their intra-month trends down. It would take daily closes below their Nov 4th lows to confirm that and signal new weakness. That would turn the new intra-month trends down. Until that occurs, those lows are viewed as 1 – 2 week support.
That corroborates the potential for the S+P Midcap 400 and other indexes to set a pair of lows – first on Nov 7/10th – 7 months from the April 7/8th lows – and then later on ~Dec 8th. In the interim, a multi-day bounce was likely.
That is also in sync with the daily trends that turned down last week and led to the Nov 7th lows. That is a lagging & confirming indicator that often reverses at the same time an initial low is set… and leads to a 2 – 3 day reactive bounce – a type of ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave rebound. Stocks have done exactly that and now enter a pivotal time at mid-week and mid-month.
The DJIA, S+P 500 & S+P Midcap 400 (as well as the XAU & HUI) have rebounded and twice neutralized their daily downtrends – also pinpointing Nov 12/13th as a decisive period when a secondary high is a greater probability. A daily reversal lower would need to occur to validate that potential.
Several indexes have also been adhering to an ~11 trading day (15-16 calendar day) low-low-low-high (Oct 27) Cycle Progression that portends secondary highs on Nov 11/12th (now). That dovetails with the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs (also in Gold and related markets) that begin to surge on Nov 11th and continue higher into Nov 13/14th.
In all those cases, that identifies Nov 12/13th as the ideal time to see new selling emerge. Why?
Since a surging 21 MARC applies downward pressure to the corresponding 21 MAC, it often helps time when an intervening downturn is most likely in a market. That pinpoints Nov 12/13th as a higher probability time for a new downturn in most equity indexes (including the XAU & HUI as well as Gold… which just bounced right to its flattening daily 21 High MAC – tracing out a textbook sequence).
The DJTA has become a more positive outlier – for the moment – as the NQ-100 has been more negative.
The NQ-100 turned its intra-month trend down last week, indicating it should not close above the Nov 3rd high before resuming its sell-off. It has not been able to neutralize its daily downtrend (similar to Russell 2000) during this bounce, increasing the potential for a reversal lower on Nov 12th.
On an intermediate basis, any of these indexes need to give a daily, and then weekly, close below the Oct 10th low to signal a larger-degree top with the potential for an overall correction into early-Dec ’25 – the next phase of the ~8-month low-low Cycle Progression that timed the early-April low. Until then, those intermediate trends remain up or neutral.
A few key price (or price/time) indicators reinforced the scenario for an initial drop into ~Nov 7th… One of them is pointing to the second half of November as the next vulnerable period… If that is going to be the case, they could initially turn down around mid-month and then decline – on balance – into month-end.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends with the potential for most indexes to extend into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
In contrast, the NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak and projecting a pair of declines this month.
The Oct ’25 high fulfilled the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.