Stock Indices & Cryptos Align ‘Eerie Parallels’; NQ-100 Oct ‘25 Cycle Peak Initially Validates.
11-12-25 – “An intriguing parallel continues to play out in the markets. It involves a type of ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario where something that should not have an oversized impact… suddenly does.
In late-2024 and throughout 2025, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay have been discussing this issue and warning about a potential validation of it near the end of 2025. That is where we now find ourselves.
This is likely to be merely an initial validation with 1Q 2026 possessing a greater probability for fulfillment during a vulnerable (future) cyclic period.
The parallel involves a perceived similarity between the 1920’s, the 1990’s & the 2020’s – dealing with derivatives that took on a life of their own due to unrestrained and unbridled speculation.
In each case, the biggest part of the problem has to do with proportionality… the time percentage of an overall bull market during which the majority of speculators enter a given ‘bubble’.
The first 60 – 70% of a move (in time) is when a smaller percentage of (more savvy) participants are involved in this trend… even as price is continually rising.
The next 10 – 20% is when the late-coming money managers – and others chasing the latest ‘hot money investment’ (for lack of a better term) – begin to pile into that market, accelerating its upward price movement in the early stages of a parabola.
The final 10 – 20% is when all the desperate & emotional speculators (and meme traders) dive into that market and start talking about a never-ending, no-ceiling rally unfolding. Of course, they have to say and believe that: Otherwise, they must acknowledge they missed the first 80 – 90% of the move.
The disproportionate majority of participants have a much lower threshold for financial pain since a 15 – 20% correction could erase all of their gains.
And that is where the dominos start to fall.
When their panic selling drives the price of an ‘investment’ down another 5 – 10%, it places another large percentage of participants into the red… and the selling accelerates.
In this case, the threat is not just to cryptos and all their assorted derivatives. When major corporations are parlaying their profits into crypto purchases, it places both at risk – their crypto holdings AND their core business.
Let’s take a look at 7 of the top 10 cryptos & where they have traded in 4Q 2025 – the time identified for a major shift and shakeup in the crypto arena:
- Bitcoin dropped 21% in Oct/Nov ’25 – the most resilient of all cryptos. More selling is expected.
- Ether dropped 38% in Aug – Nov ’25.
- XRP dropped 55% in July – Oct ’25.
- Solana dropped 42% in Sept – Nov ’25 (~50% in Jan – Nov ’25).
- BNB dropped 34% in Oct/Nov ’25.
- Doge dropped ~80% in Dec ’24 – Oct ’25.
- Tronix dropped 25% in Aug – Nov ’25 (~37% in Dec ’24 – Nov ’25).
Add to this the reality that 2025 has seen a massive influx of crypto buying on multiple factors (many of which have not materialized as hoped). That means a high proportion of participants have entered these markets in just the past ~12 months. They may not be feeling too much pain yet… but additional selling still appears as a high probability.
At what point will this selling hit the ‘point of critical mass’ and trigger a sell-off that just feeds on itself?
At what point, if that occurs, will crypto losses start to complicate the balance sheets of corporations that decided they should become their own crypto ETFs?
In the 1920’s, it was the forerunner to the modern-day ETF – with shell companies purchasing shares of overly-expensive stocks (often on margin and always at already-elevated prices) and then issuing shares so that ‘Joe Public’ could afford to ‘play the market’.
In the 1990’s, it was ‘dot-com’ companies – often created out of thin air and with no completed product (or anything tangible, not even in the digital world) but allowing ‘Joe Public’ to speculate like the big boys and risk their entire retirement on hopes and dreams.
In the 2020’s, it has been cryptocurrency, and crypto-derivatives, and then NFTs and memes and whatever else allows Joe Public to speculate with reckless abandon on the promises that a digital trading card or token is the key to eternal riches.
In each case, those derivative markets take on an oversized impact and importance due to a perilous combination of factors, including leverage, point of entry & liquidity. The result is usually not pretty.
If ongoing INSIIDE Track analysis – for Bitcoin to peak in 2025 (initially in July ’25 and then finally in 4Q ’25) and suffer a serious downturn in late-2025… and another plunge in 2026 – is even close to being accurate, it could be a big problem.
Two things should be continually reiterated.
First, a sharp drop from an extremely overbought peak does not mean that vehicle (in this case, cryptos) will disappear. Tech companies didn’t disappear after the dot-com bust.
Second is that cycles rhyme, they don’t (exactly) repeat. The current situation will not unfold (or unravel) in the same way as predecessors.
What is expected in the interim?
Stock Indices are rallying in the midst of two expected November sell-offs. They fulfilled analysis for an initial drop into Nov 7th and rebounded after failing to turn their intra-month trends down. It would take daily closes below their Nov 4th lows to signal new weakness. Until that occurs, those lows are viewed as 1 – 2 week support.
This latest rally has fulfilled the normal 2 – 3 day reactive rally after a market turns its daily trend down (a lagging/confirming indicator that often times an initial low… as it did last week in stocks).
The S+P 500 & S+P Midcap 400 have rebounded and neutralized their daily downtrends multiple times – pinpointing Nov 13th as a likely time for a reversal lower. Several indexes have adhered to an ~11 trading day (15-16 calendar day) low-low-low-high (Oct 27) Cycle Progression that portends secondary highs by/on Nov 12th. Daily 21 MARCs concur.
As a result, tomorrow is a pivotal day when a reversal lower could begin to take hold. It is also approaching mid-month – when a high is more likely.
On an intermediate basis, any of these indexes need to give a daily, and then weekly, close below the Oct 10th low to signal a larger-degree top with the potential for a new sell-off into early-Dec ’25 – the next phase of the ~8-month low-low Cycle Progression that timed the early-April low.
Until then, those intermediate trends remain up or neutral.
The preferred scenario remains that stock indexes will enter a second decline after mid-month and give weekly closes below their respective 21 Low MACs on Nov 21st (or 28th at the latest) and then turn the direction of those weekly 21 MACs down on Nov 24 – 28th (or Dec 1 – 5th at the latest). The action of the coming days needs to validate this scenario…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – a time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Both fulfilled analysis for an initial decline into Nov 7/10th but weekly cycles portend a new decline into Nov 14 – 21th that could bottom as early as Nov 17th.
Both cryptos have been tracing out an ongoing daily 21 MAC reversal and down-trending sequence. After a late-October bounce to their declining daily 21 High MACs, Bitcoin & Ether sold off into early-Nov and have since bounced to their declining daily 21 Low MACs.
That is usually what occurs – a bounce to the 21 MAC without entering it – as a market is poised to accelerate lower. It would take daily closes below the early-Nov lows to confirm that scenario and project a sharp spike lower. With both cryptos closing last week below their weekly 21 Low MACs, that also shows additional weakness.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are mixed with the potential for most indexes to extend rallies into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. An ‘eerie parallel’ – connected to projections for Bitcoin & cryptos to turn decidedly negative in Nov/Dec ’25 – has likely begun.
In contrast, the NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week/multi-month peak was likely. It peaked closer to the recent Bitcoin top, validating an early sign of that ‘eerie parallel’. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak and projecting a pair of declines this month.
The Oct ’25 high fulfilled the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable & Linked to ‘Eerie Parallel’?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.