Stock Indices Reinforce ‘Eerie Parallels’; NQ-100 Oct ‘25 Cycle Peak Initially Validates.
11-13-25 – “Stock Indices fulfilled near-term analysis for a drop into Nov 7th and a subsequent bounce into Nov 12th… expected to lead to a sharper decline after that, beginning on Nov 13th. As stated on Nov 11, ’25:
11-11-25 – “That is also in sync with the daily trends that turned down last week and led to the Nov 7th lows. That is a lagging & confirming indicator that often reverses at the same time an initial low is set… and leads to a 2 – 3 day reactive bounce – a type of ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave rebound. Stocks have done exactly that and now enter a pivotal time at mid-week..
The DJIA, S+P 500 & S+P Midcap 400 (as well as the XAU & HUI) have rebounded and twice neutralized their daily downtrends – also pinpointing Nov 12/13th as a decisive period when a secondary high is a greater probability. A daily reversal lower would need to occur to validate that potential.
Several indexes have also been adhering to an ~11 trading day (15-16 calendar day) low-low-low-high (Oct 27) Cycle Progression that portends secondary highs on Nov 11/12th (now).
That dovetails with the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs (also in Gold and related markets) that begin to surge on Nov 11th and continue higher into Nov 13/14th.
In all those cases, that identifies Nov 12/13th as the ideal time to see new selling emerge.
Why?
Since a surging 21 MARC applies downward pressure to the corresponding 21 MAC, it often helps time when an intervening downturn is most likely in a market. That pinpoints Nov 12/13th as a higher probability time for a new downturn in most equity indexes…
The NQ-100 turned its intra-month trend down last week, indicating it should not close above the Nov 3rd high before resuming its sell-off. It has not been able to neutralize its daily downtrend (similar to Russell 2000) during this bounce, increasing the potential for a reversal lower on Nov 12th.” — Nov 11, 2025 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
That is exactly what has unfolded and it dovetails with the ongoing discussion regarding late-2025 being the time when ‘eerie parallels’ to the 1920’s & 1990’s would begin to emerge. Recent Weekly Re-Lay Alerts have elaborated on this.
On an intermediate basis, any of these indexes need to give a daily, and then weekly, close below the Oct 10th low to signal a larger-degree top with the potential for [reserved for subscribers]…
The preferred scenario remains that stock indexes will enter a second decline after mid-month and give weekly closes below their respective 21 Low MACs on Nov 21st (or 28th at the latest) and then turn the direction of those weekly 21 MACs down on Nov 24 – 28th (or Dec 1 – 5th at the latest). The action of the coming days needs to validate this scenario…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – a time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Both fulfilled analysis for an initial decline into Nov 7th and a bounce into Nov 12th, when another decline was projected to take hold.
Both cryptos have been tracing out an ongoing daily 21 MAC reversal and down-trending sequence. After a late-October bounce to their declining daily 21 High MACs, Bitcoin & Ether sold off into early-Nov and then bounced to their declining daily 21 Low MACs on Nov 11th/12th. That is what spurred the following conclusion in the Nov 12th Alert:
11-12-25 – “That is usually what occurs – a bounce to the 21 MAC without entering it – as a market is poised to accelerate lower… and project a sharp spike lower. With both cryptos closing last week below their weekly 21 Low MACs, that also shows additional weakness.” [additional analysis reserved for subscribers]” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are mixed with the potential for most indexes to extend rallies into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. An ‘eerie parallel’ – connected to projections for Bitcoin & cryptos to turn decidedly negative in Nov/Dec ’25 – has likely begun.
In contrast, the NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. It peaked closer to the recent Bitcoin top, validating an early sign of that ‘eerie parallel’. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak and projecting a pair of declines this month.
The Oct ’25 high fulfilled the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable & Linked to ‘Eerie Parallel’?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.