Stock Indices Retreat as NQ-100 Validates Oct ‘25 Cycle Peak; Cryptos Concur.
11-15-25 – “Stock indexes are mildly diverging after fulfilling analysis for a drop into Nov 7th. The DJIA spiked to a slight new high & fulfilled multiple wave objectives as the NQ-100, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap steadily declined and appear poised to trigger new selling in the second half of November…
The Midcap spiked to its weekly LHR (extreme upside weekly target) and then reversed lower, generating an outside-week/2 Close Reversal Combo sell signal. At the same time, one index briefly spiked to a new high and reversed lower…
The DJIA fulfilled a Golden Ratio-related web of moves – completing a second consecutive advance of 31 – 32 weeks, that was 1.618 times the ~19-week decline from late-Nov ’24 into early-April ’25. The recent high arrived just shy of 1 year/360 degrees from that late-Nov ’24 peak.
It did that while completing another pair of equal duration rallies – successive 15-week advances from early-April into late-July and from early-Aug into the week of Nov 10 – 14, ’25. It set that peak while spiking to/above its weekly LHR (extreme weekly upside target) and then reversing lower.
The NQ-100 remained weaker and is validating a scenario that could see it drop back to [reserved for subscribers]…
The preferred scenario is still that stock indexes enter a second decline after mid-month and give weekly closes below their respective 21 Low MACs on Nov 21st (or 28th at the latest) and then turn the direction of those weekly 21 MACs down on Nov 24 – 28th (or Dec 1 – 5th at the latest).
Stock indices bounced into mid-week as the S+P 500 tried repeatedly to turn its new daily downtrend (& intra-month trend) up, but failed to. It ended the week with a pair of daily closes below the flattening daily 21 Low MAC and could soon turn the direction of that average down – most likely on Nov 18th (when the inversely-related daily 21 Low MARC jumps to 6694/ESZ).
The NQ-100 acted similarly but with a slightly more negative slant.
It bounced into Nov 12th – fulfilling its daily trend signal – and peaked while bumping up against its daily 21 High MAC – without neutralizing its daily downtrend. It sold off into Nov 14th, closing below its daily 21 Low MAC on Nov 13 & 14th & turning it down on Nov 14th…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – a time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Both are fulfilling projections for an overall decline into Nov 14 – 21th – with the greatest synergy of cycle lows on Nov 14/17th.
They bounced into mid-week and right back to the daily 21 MAC without entering it, projecting subsequent acceleration lower (in the week after they also closed below their weekly 21 Low MACs). If a low is set [reserved for subscribers], Bitcoin could rebound (on balance) into early-Dec ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are mixed with the potential for most indexes to extend rallies into Dec ’25 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression. An ‘eerie parallel’ – connected to projections for Bitcoin & cryptos to turn decidedly negative in Nov/Dec ’25 – has likely begun.
In contrast, the NQ-100 had daily & weekly Cycle Progressions most synergistic on Oct 28/29th – when a multi-week peak was likely. It peaked closer to the recent Bitcoin top, validating an early sign of that ‘eerie parallel’. On Nov 4th, it turned its daily trend down – confirming a multi-week (and potentially larger) peak and projecting a pair of declines this month.
The Oct ’25 high fulfilled the 5th consecutive ~3-year advance in the Nasdaq-100, since its March 2009 bottom. They occurred in March ’09 – March ’12, June ’12 – July ’15, Aug ’15 – Aug ’18, Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 and now October 2022 – October 2025. The final week of October saw multiple daily Cycle Progressions converge with the latest phase of its ~8-month/~35 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – high (July ’24) – high (Feb ’25) – (high; Oct 17 – 31, ’25)… the ideal setup for a multi-month (minimum) peak!
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 in most other indexes and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression. Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle… closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak… It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Has NQ-100 Peaked – in Sync with Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Highs?
Will Other Indexes Wait for Dec ’25 Cycle Highs?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable & Linked to ‘Eerie Parallel’?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.