Stock Market Buy Signals: Brief Pullback to ~12,980/NQU (Aug 9) Likely
08/06/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have rallied, confirming mid-June bottoms and validating the outlook for an overall advance into Sept ‘22. They were expected to enter a bullish multi-week phase on July 14 and then rally into early-Aug – which was just fulfilled. Monday’s action could determine how quickly a new advance takes hold…
Stock Indices have stalled in their recent runup, just as cycles were portending a brief top and pullback… In the ideal cyclic scenario, at least some of the key stock indexes will spike below this past week’s lows and then reverse higher. The stronger ones (NQ-100, ??) should bottom at or above their Aug 1 – 5 lows and then resume their rallies.
That would produce a secondary (or tertiary) low while perpetuating a ~4-week high-high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and project a subsequent ~4-week rally into the first half of Sept ’22 (when longer-term cycles peak).
Stock Indexes initially fulfilled intermediate projections for a multi-week advance – based on daily 21 MAC/MARC structure, intra-month trend set-up, and corroborating daily cycle lows – from July 14 into Aug 1 – 5. However, that initial peak is not expected to hold for too long.
Monday’s action should provide some short-term clarification but the more likely scenario appears to be that stock indexes could pull back on Aug 8 and possibly Aug 9, before resuming their advances.
If they are to remain bullish on a short-term basis, they should not turn their intra-month trends down and would ideally remain above their rising daily 21 High MACs during an impending pullback.
The greatest (and tightest) synergy of daily support levels appears in the NQ-100 and could see it pulling back to 12,943 – 12,986 on Aug 8 and then quickly reversing back up. That would be the most bullish case for the next 1 – 2 weeks and could ultimately reinforce its intra-month uptrend.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 2 month traders (futures and cash) could have entered long positions in stock indexes during the July 14 sell-off as the indexes retested their early-July lows.
Risk (exit on) [reserved for subscribers]…”
Stock indexes are reinforcing July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger an initial 3 – 4 week advance and as part of a larger overall advance. A brief pullback into Aug 9 is likely with the NQU expected to test and hold ~12,980 and then rally into mid-Aug. This would heighten the focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the second – which should culminate on/around Aug 15/16… the second ‘1/3’ of this overall scenario.
Can the July 14 Buy Signals Spur Another Surge into Aug 15/16?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.