Stock Market Cycle Low: Feb 23/24 Bottom Fulfilled; Leading Indexes Signal Low.
02/26/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices sold off into Feb 23/24, perpetuating a ~1-month/~30 degree cycle that has timed the lows in 6 of the past 8 months. In doing so the NQ-100 and S+P 500 dropped to new lows – fulfilling their weekly trend patterns – as the DJIA likely set a multi-week bottom in sync with its own weekly trend structure. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 held their late-Jan lows while creating double bottoms…
Stock Indices have likely completed their latest sell-off – fulfilling the broader expectations for 1Q ’22 linked to not only the 2-Year Cycle (and 2, 4 & 8-month cycles – all of which projected a decisive peak in early-Jan followed by the sharpest sell-off since 1Q ’20) but also the pair of 4-Shadow Signals.
The first was triggered in the NQ-100 and other key indexes in Dec ’21 and forecast a sharper drop after a rebound into early-Jan ’22. The second was triggered in most indexes in Jan ’22 and projected another sharp decline after a bounce into Feb 2/3.
This 2 – 3 month sell-off has powerfully fulfilled the 2-Year Cycle and repeated the pattern witnessed in 1Q 2010, 2014, 2016 & 2018 (with similarities to 1Q ’20) – when substantial declines occurred in Jan/Feb of those years. However, the wave structure and weekly trend patterns are now the most significant.
The DJIA finally turned its weekly trend down on Feb 18 – a lagging/confirming indicator that usually augurs an intermediate low in the ensuing week and the onset of a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce. The DJIA fulfilled that and spiked to a new low on Feb 23/24 while completing a fairly symmetrical ‘a-b-c’ wave correction from its early-Jan peak – in which the duration AND magnitude of the ‘a’ and ‘c’ wave declines were similar.
At the same time, the NQ-100 completed a 5-wave decline (from its Nov ’21 peak) as the Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400 held their late-Jan lows and set double bottoms. All of these argue for a low.
That should trigger a larger-magnitude recovery or consolidation even if another intermediate (divergent) low is seen around March 23/24. The DJIA has a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression, dating back to March ’21 – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22. In the interim, additional highs (and lows) are expected.
Stocks spiked lower into Feb 23/24, marking the 6th time in the last 8 months when they bottomed on the 19th – 24th of the month. They bottomed 1 month/30 degrees from their Jan 24 low, fulfilling a corresponding ~1-month/23 trading-day low (Dec 20) – low (Jan 24) – low (Feb 23/24) Cycle Progression…
Corroborating that, the Russell 2000 fulfilled its own 17 – 18 trading-day high-high-low-low Cycle Progression that also projected a low on Feb 23/24. An initial peak is expected in early-March, similar to the pattern of late-Jan/early-Feb.”
Stocks are fulfilling the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge into Feb/Mar ’22 before a multi-month low becomes more likely. Daily & weekly cycles converge and portend a multi-week (or longer) low on Feb 23/24 followed by a quick, sharp rally.
That is unfolding at the same time Gold had been forecast to see an accelerated advance into late-Feb/early-March – presaging the geopolitical tensions that are now unfolding and could time the culmination of those 4Q ‘21/1Q ’22 trends.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
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