Stock Market: Early-June High Fulfilled; Is New Sell-off (into ???) Likely?
06/04/22 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indices have entered a pivotal 2 – 3 day period when their fate – for the next 2 – 4 weeks and even the next 2 – 4 months – could be significantly impacted. They fulfilled analysis for divergent lows on May 12 & 20 followed by rallies into May 27 and then into June 3/6.
While doing so, most indexes twice neutralized their weekly downtrends – ushering in a decisive week. They would need to generate weekly closes above 33,272/DJIA & 4205/ESU to turn their weekly trends up and elevate this rebound from a 2 – 3 week bounce into a likely 2 – 3 month advance. (The Nasdaq 100 did not trigger a second neutral signal so it cannot yet turn its weekly trend up.)
Several indexes also rallied right to their declining weekly 21 Low MACs and initially reversed lower. That also necessitates a weekly close above recent highs to turn the weekly 21 MAC indicator neutral.
Adding to the pivotal nature of the coming week, equities are attempting to hold decisive support levels tested in May ’22…Stock Indexes are again repeating the intra-month pattern of rallying in the opening days of the month [reserved for subscribers].”
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for divergent lows on May 12 & 20 and divergent highs on May 27 & June 3/6 – when another 1 – 2 peak has been forecast. On an intermediate basis, the next peak is expected in late-June/early-July ’22 – after an intervening sell-off (following June 3 cycle high).
In May ’22, the Russell 2000 attacked and held its 6 – 12 month & 3 – 6 month downside target at ~1710/QR – a decisive objective that has been discussed since the Russell 2K reached its major, upside (5th wave) objective at 2460/QR in Nov ’21 and signaled a 6 – 12 month (or longer) peak. What does that portend for June – Sept ’22?
On a broader basis, stocks remain in a major topping process – fulfilling the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge to begin 2022. That is just the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak.
Will A New Sell-off Follow June 3/6 Cycle Peak?
What Could be Different About this Sell-off?
What Does Russell 2K Action Portend for Other Indexes?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.