Stock Market Peaking; Nasdaq 100 Projects Top Near ~16,700/NQ.
11/13/21 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock indexes retreated after surging to new highs and initially fulfilling the potential for peaks on Nov. 4 – 9 – perpetuating a ~30-day/~1-month related cycle…To keep this in proper context, most equity indexes were/are expected to set 1 – 3 month (or longer) tops in May/June ’21, Sept. ’21 and Jan/Feb ’22. Their intervening action has been – and is likely to remain – diverse as many stocks remain below their May/June ’21 peaks while others quickly exceeded those highs on their way to higher peaks in Sept. and now in early-Nov ’21.
In many cases, the DJTA has led key turning points including the peak in May ’21 and now a recent peak in early-Nov. (the ~2-month midpoint between the early-Sept ’21 peak and the next phase of a ~4-month cycle in early-Jan ’22). Based on the action leading into the recent peak, that index is unlikely to set new intraday highs for some time.
However, many other stocks and indexes are on track for a series of higher highs – in May/June, Sept, Nov., and likely in Jan ’22. Intervening cycle lows were expected in mid-July, late-Sept/early-Oct. and late-Nov/early-Dec. Originally, the late-Nov/early-Dec cycle low was poised to drop below the late-Sept/early-Oct low. However, price and trend action in early-Oct. showed underlying strength and shifted those expectations (to a higher low in late-Nov.).
Stocks have pulled back since peaking on Nov. 4 – 9 and perpetuating a ~60-day/~2-month low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in which a low and then a series of peaks were seen on the 4th – 7th trading day of every other month (March, May, July, Sept. and Nov ‘21).”
Stocks are fulfilling critical upside targets with the NQ-100 still likely to spike up toward ~16,700/NQZ – ‘where a myriad of upside objectives converge’ before a multi-month peak takes hold.
The Russell 2000 has fulfilled its monthly & weekly trend patterns as well as Elliott Wave structure – all of which projected a final surge following the Sept 20 cycle low. It has reached key upside targets and could now see a series of sharp sell-offs, before and after a projected (divergent) high in early-Jan ‘22.
The DJTA has done the same – and has reached multiple major upside price targets – setting the stage for a multi-month (or longer) peak. The NQ-100 is expected to spike up to ~16,700/NQ in order to fulfill a decisive wave ‘5’ objective and then drop into early-Dec. Continued divergence is expected as the equity markets prepare for what could be a dramatic shift in 2022, beginning with a larger-magnitude decline following an early-Jan ’22 peak.
How significant will early-Jan ’22 peak be? What are ramifications of DJTA, Russell 2000 and NQ-100 attacking multi-month or multi-year upside targets??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.