Stock Market Rebound: DJIA Cycles Project Future Peak on April 18 – 22.
03/17/22 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices continue to surge after divergent lows in successive weeks (March 8 & 15) in which the leading (and stronger) DJTA set higher lows while the lagging (weaker) NQ-100 set lower lows and fulfilled multiple downside objectives.
In the inverse of the roller-coaster analogy (since this was a low instead of a high), it took the final ‘car’ bottoming out before all the cars could enter a stronger rally.
Equities are steadily reinforcing the significance of the Feb 23/24 lows – a low that was expected to be the ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low (in most indexes) and usher in a more significant and substantial ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave advance – the most dynamic wave in an overall structure.
On March 14/15, the indexes spiked a little lower to begin the week even as the leading DJTA provided another positive signal – closing back above its daily 21 High MAC on the same day (March 15) it turned the direction of that 21 High MAC up. Due to the falling (inversely-correlated) 21 MARC, that 21 MAC reversal was expected to trigger a corresponding uptrend which immediately took hold.
This came after the DJTA went through a textbook sequence of daily trend signals since its Feb 24 spike low, providing the most convincing buy signal on March 8/9. During the pullback leading into that low, the DJTA twice neutralized its daily uptrend but did not turn it down – the classic setup for a secondary low (‘b’ or ‘2’ wave low) and the onset of a higher-magnitude advance. It quickly re-entered its daily uptrend on March 9 and has been targeting higher levels ever since.
Perhaps more important, from a broader perspective, the DJTA had dropped right to its rising monthly 21 High MAC at its low (14,200/DJTA in Feb ’22), testing and holding monthly trend support while never turning its weekly trend down. It neutralized that weekly uptrend 5 times before spiking lower (on Feb 23/24) and subsequently generating a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal that week…
In contrast to the past 3 – 4 weeks of developing strength in the DJTA, the weakest index (NQ-100) dropped to new lows into March 15 (mid-month) – fulfilling its daily trend and intra-month trend signals while testing and holding monthly support, providing fulfillment to analysis for a divergent low. Those factors combined to pinpoint the ideal time and price for a low.
This NQ-100 spike low – to its lowest low since May ’21 – came during the 2-year anniversary of the same week during which many stocks bottomed in March 2020. At that time (2-Year Cycle), several stocks and some indexes (DJTA, NQ-100) set their intraday lows or low daily closes on March 16 – 18, ‘20.
This reinforces the outlook for most stocks and indexes, which were/are expected to hold their Feb 23/24 & March 8 lows as part of a developing recovery that should ultimately produce the next intermediate high in the middle half of April (not too dissimilar from when stocks set initial peaks in 2016 – another phase of the 2-Year Cycle that has been in focus).
The DJIA (and other indexes) has a consistent 14 – 15 week low-low-low-high Cycle Progression – dating back to March ’21 – that portends a future peak on April 11 – 22… a 50% rebound in time (16 weeks down/8 weeks up) would also culminate (peak) on April 18 – 22, ’22. That would also perpetuate a ~5.5-month (5.25 – 5.75 months or 22 – 24 weeks) high-high cycle that has timed 6 consecutive intermediate peaks in the Transports.
Most indexes have turned their daily trends up and are in the process of turning their intra-month trends up. That should spur additional strength later in March but could also trigger an initial high in the coming days.”
Stocks fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles honed that and projected a multi-week (or longer) bottom on Feb 23/24. That is just the start of a massive topping process projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023. The next phase – and next danger period – could follow a peak ‘in the middle half of April’ (ideally on April 19 – 21) and be followed by another sharp sell-off in late-April ‘22.
This stock market rebound is unfolding as Gold is fulfilling analysis for an accelerated advance into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking this past week, on March 7 – 11. This powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025 even as it could time a 1 – 2 month peak in Gold. A subsequent high is likely on April 18/19, just before/as stock cycles peak.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.