Stock Market: Stock Indexes Confirming Multi-Month Lows; Watch Sept ’22!
07/06/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock indices are slowly validating signs of bottoming (in mid-June), after spiking to new lows and 6 – 12 month downside targets. This could be the start of a multi-month rally into monthly cycle highs in Sept/Oct ’22 – when the next decisive peak is forecast.
Several individual stocks, normally viewed as ‘proxy stocks’ (MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, SBUX), bottomed in May and set higher lows in June – preparing for stronger rallies in July. Like the overall NQ-100, those stocks previously peaked in Nov ’21 – while fulfilling major upside price and wave targets and multi-month cycles – and led the way lower.
So, it is not surprising they are bottoming a little earlier than others and could lead the way higher.
Reinforcing this, the three primary indexes (DJIA, S+P 500 and NQ-100) remain at or above 6 – 12 month downside targets – where multi-month lows were/are most likely to occur (and spur an overall rebound into Sept ‘22).
The DJIA has support at 29,200 – 29,600/DJIA, the S+P 500 at 3560 – 3610/SPX and the NQ-100 at 10,700 – 11,100. From a timing perspective, stocks bottomed during the ideal time based on the ~8-Month Cycle (that timed the early-Jan ’22 peak).
If a trend is turning, a market will often decline for 2/3 of the cycle (~5.5 months; June 13 – 21) – leaving time for the ensuing rebound – into the final phase of the 8-Month Cycle – to be 50% of the decline (~23 weeks down/~11.5 weeks up).
The Nasdaq-100 corroborated that, fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence. It also completed successive 11-week declines – the ‘3’ and ‘5’ waves of what is likely a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ decline (Nov ’21 – June ’22 = ‘A’ wave and next rebound would be ‘B’ wave).
In the short-term, it would take the new intra-month trends turning up (with daily closes above 31,225/DJIA, 3875/ESU & 11,975/NQU) and the daily trends turning up (with daily closes above 31,885/DJIA, 3948/ESU & 12,262/NQU) to signal a 1 – 2 month bottom.
That could/should prompt 1 – 2 month surges to [reserved for subscribers]…”
Stock indexes are validating the potential for a mid-June (multi-month) bottom and the onset of a multi-week/multi-month advance. They reached 6 – 12 month downside targets in June – fulfilling the overwhelming majority of downside price potential for the first 9 months of 2022. Focus is steadily shifting to Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. That is the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21!
How Would a Mid-June Bottom Validate the ~8-Month Cycle?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Key Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.