Stock Market Top? Russell 2000 (Canary in Coal Mine) Fulfilling Criteria for Peak!
07/26/23 – “Stock Indices remain positive, having rallied into intermediate cycle highs in mid-June ’23 and then consolidating for 4 – 5 weeks. During that consolidation, they could not signal anything more than 1 – 2 month peaks – and did not provide any convincing sell signals – eventually giving way to an additional wave higher after a ~month of congestion had transpired.
That coincided with May ‘23 monthly trend reversals in indexes like the NQ-100. In those cases, that indicator often times an initial peak but ultimately gives way to a future rally after a reactive pullback.
This has also allowed the Russell 2000 to attack its 3 – 4 month upside targets (stemming from its March ’23 low) at 2000 – 2015/QRU.
It allowed the Russell 2000 & DJTA to rally into July ’23 and potentially fulfill a 20-month low-high-(high; July ’23) Cycle Progression. Meanwhile, the DJIA – the index that was described as having the potential to rally back to its major high – has now experienced its longest daily winning streak since 1987…
In the near-term, Stock Indices remain positive but in the time when a multi-week peak is more likely. They would not turn neutral (from up), however, until daily closes below 35,050/DJIA & 4528/ESU. In contrast, the NQ-100 has turned neutral but would not turn down until a daily close below 15,480/NQU.”
Stock indexes remain in bullish but divergent 3 – 6 month cycles & trends and on track for multi-month peaks in the second half of July ‘23. As it did in Nov ’21, the Russell 2000 is increasing signs of an impending multi-month peak but is still expected to extend its rally into late-July ’23 – when a decisive peak is most likely.
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Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.