Stock Trading: ‘Largest Rallies of 2022’ Forecast for July/Aug ‘22!
07/29/22 INSIIDE Track – “Stock Indices are steadily fulfilling and corroborating the outlook for 2022/2023. They fulfilled projections for a pair of divergent peaks in early-Nov ’21 and early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month sell-off…
And just to reiterate – it is NOT just these cycles that are powerfully validating this outlook. The cycles only provide a backdrop and a general ‘roadmap’ for the timing of important highs and lows. From there, it is up to price action to ‘take the wheel’.
In June ‘22, stocks dropped right to decisive levels of 6 – 12 month support and held. The DJIA attacked (and held) its most important level of resistance turned into support – the level of the Feb ’20 and Aug ’20 peaks at 29,200 – 29,600/DJIA. That is also a form of range-trading support.
At the same time, the stronger S+P 500 neared similar support at 3560 – 3610/SPX (2022 HLS, 2022 plunge = Feb/Mar ’20 plunge, Aug ’20 high) and held. Most telling, however, were tech stocks…
The NQ-100 reached a myriad of downside targets and support at 10,700 – 11,100 – where a multi-month bottom was most likely (2022 HLS, multi-year range-trading support, 50% retracement of Dec ’18 – Nov ’21 advance, test of the Sept/Oct ’20 lows – a type of 4th wave of lesser degree).
There was also a contrasting cyclic ‘fulfillment’. Stocks extended this decline into the ideal time based on the ~8-Month Cycle (that timed the early-Jan ’22 peak). If a trend is turning, a market will often decline for 2/3 of the cycle (~5.5 months; June 13 – 21 low) – leaving time for the ensuing rebound – into the final phase of the 8-Month Cycle – to be a 50% rebound of the decline (~23 weeks down/~11.5 weeks up).
[Another potential/developing example of this can be seen in precious metals, which were forecast to set a pair of intra-year highs – first in March ‘22 and then in Sept ‘22. Ideally, they would decline for ~4 months and then rally for ~2 months – a 50% rebound in time. Silver has closely adhered to that scenario.]
At the same time (June 13 – 21), the NQ-100 was fulfilling a 14 – 15 week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and a related 28 – 29-week low-low-high-(low) Cycle Sequence in mid-June. Those are two nearly-ubiquitous cycles in the Nasdaq – that were discussed and detailed in 2000 – 2002 and again in 2007 – 2009, as they helped pinpoint the ’08/‘09 low.
The NQ-100 also completed successive 11-week declines – the ‘3’ and ‘5’ waves of what is likely a larger-magnitude ‘A-B-C’ decline (Nov ’21 – June ’22 = ‘A’ wave). The action of the next week should help clarify what to expect from a potential rally.
On a broader basis, little has changed from what has been stressed the past 6 – 12 months…
2022 is the collision of major cycles – some multi-decade and some multi-generational – when [see full publication for complete details]…
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month (and even 1 – 2 year) traders and investors should have been exiting long positions in early-Sept ‘21. Depending on the action of the next ~3 months, and the setup leading into Sept/Oct ‘22, more aggressive selling could be warranted. The Weekly Re-Lay detailed 1 – 4 week and 1 – 2 month buy signals that were triggered on the July 13 close and entered on the July 14 sell-off.”
Stock indexes are reinforcing July 14 buy signals – projected to trigger an initial 3 – 4 week advance and as part of a larger overall advance. In the first part of August, they are expected to reach 33,400/DJIA, 4250/ESU, 13,400/NQU, 2620/IDX & 1970/QRU. This intensifies focus on Sept ’22 and what could be the most decisive time of this year.
On a broader basis, stocks powerfully fulfilled projections for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a multi-month plunge in the first half of 2022. An overall 4 – 5 month decline was/is expected between that Jan ’22 cycle peak and the next (Sept/Oct ’22) cycle peak… ideally bottoming on June 13 – 21! That is when stocks bottomed and produced their first reversal signal. July 14 produced the next.
How Do the July 14 Buy Signals Corroborate 3Q ’22 Outlook?
Why is Sept ’22 Such a Decisive Period in the 2022/2023 Outlook??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.