Stocks Attacking Extremes; Portend Initial Lows March 16 – 18!
03/13/20 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: “Stock Indexes spiked down into mid-March, fulfilling their intra-month downtrends as the Nasdaq 100 plummeted right to its extreme downside target for all of March 2020 (the monthly HLS) – at 6975/NQM…
Alll three indexes also spiked down to their weekly HLS levels – the extreme downside targets for this past week – and held. So, on two different levels, equity markets stretched to extreme downside targets/support and held – warning of an imminent (intermediate) bottom. And, on a daily basis, the indexes plunged to their daily HLS levels on Thursday – also warning of an imminent (1 – 2 week) bottom in the mid-month period (March 13/16).
Their Feb./March plunges have also fulfilled the 40-Year Cycle outlook for sharp sell-offs that mimic what transpired in Feb./March 1980… ushering in the potential for a multi-week, instead of just a multi-day, low.
In 1980, the DJIA peaked on Feb. 12/13, dove 8 – 10% into late-Feb., and experienced an overall 20+% plunge into March ’80 – when it spiked to new multi-year lows before setting a March ’80 low.
In 2020, the DJIA peaked on Feb. 12/13, dove 8 – 10% into late-Feb., and experienced an overall 20+% plunge into March ’20 – when it spiked to new multi-year lows on March 12/13…
When stocks triggered their ‘Perfect Storm’ of sell signals in early-to-mid-Feb., it projected a 3 – 5 week drop with one primary objective – getting the weekly trend patterns to this decisive week (when they either signal the end of an entire correction or just the end of the first leg down of a larger correction).
They have now arrived…
It is also intriguing how diverse complexes (oil stocks, mining shares, banking shares and even ag-related stocks) are attacking decisive support levels and/or fulfilling pivotal cycles – reinforcing what the general indexes are showing.
On a larger-scale basis, the monthly charts reveal a couple interesting clues (reserved for subscribers)… in light of the 2020 election battle that is barely beginning to heat up, the DJIA just shed over 85% of its Trump gains (Inauguration ‘17 price of 19,827 up to Feb. ’20 peak of 29,568 and back down to 21,176/DJIA) – a similar percentage of what the entire dot-com bubble ultimately lost (Nasdaq 100 lost about 85% in 2000 – 2002) and the gold stock plunge of 2008 (~85%) and an even larger-percentage XAU plunge in 2010 – 2016.
While it is certainly very early to assign too much election-significance to current stock levels (since they could be much different in Oct./Nov. ’20), it is likely to have a powerful impact moving forward. The economic repercussions of current decisions (suspensions, cancellations, etc.) are likely to reverberate into 2Q and 3Q 2020 – creating the potential for some VEERRRRY ‘interesting’ times (as the old proverb/curse says). Stay tuned.”
Stocks fulfilling 3 – 5 week sell signals triggered on Feb. 7 – 14; completing projected overall plunge into late-March ’20 – when a multi-month bottom is expected. Daily/weekly extreme indicators project initial bottom on March 16 – 18.
40-Year Cycle and 2-Year Cycle could still extend drop in DJIA into March 23, 2020 – the precise time that index bottomed in 2018 AND 1980.
Are Oil & Metals Stocks Also Poised for Multi-Month Bottom?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.