Stocks Confirm Dec 13 Highs; NQ on Track for Retest of Low Before Next Rally.
12/19/22 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices spiked higher into Dec 13 with many setting new intraday highs and fulfilling the outlook for the longest rallies in 2022. In many cases, the spike highs extended the latest rally to 61 days (Oct 13 – Dec 13), exceeding the previous June 17 – Aug 16 rally (60 days) by a day and fulfilling what needed to be fulfilled.
In essence, those two rallies were equal in duration – ushering in a very likely time for a peak.
The early-week bounce indicated intra-week downside targets (some detailed in the 12/10/22 Weekly Re-Lay) would not likely be attacked until late-week. The S+P had the greatest synergy of weekly support, extreme intra-week targets and near-term (downside) objectives around 3862/ESH – where 3 of the latest 4 weekly HLS levels (3848 – 3861/ESH) converged with the weekly 21 Low MARC (3862/ESH) and monthly support. That acted like a magnet, pulling the indexes lower after they fulfilled upside spikes.
The real ‘canary in the coal mine’ has been the NQ-100, ushering in a bearish period after its Dec 9 weekly close (failure). To quote the Dec 10, ’22 Weekly Re-Lay:
12-10-22 – “The NQ-100, continues to lag the others and reinforce its overall bearishness… its Dec 9 re-entry into the weekly downtrend, could ultimately spur a retest of the Oct 13 low.”
All of this occurred right after the DJIA fulfilled ongoing projections (since late-Sept ’22) for an overall advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles. It peaked at 34,595/DJIA – fulfilling that multi-month objective.
It also occurred as the DJIA provided an intraday spike high on Dec 13 – fulfilling its 16 – 17-week high (Jan ’22) – high (Apr ’22) – high (Aug ’22) – (high; Dec 5 – 16, ’22) and ~49-week high (Feb ’20) – high (Jan ’21) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; Dec 12 – 19, ’22) Cycle Progression… ushering in a pivotal peak that will likely hold for several weeks, if not longer.
On a 2 – 4 week basis, Stock Indexes have been going through a topping phase since the DJIA surged into late-Nov and fulfilled its ~2-month upside price objective (even as the DJTA, Russell 2000, and others failed to retest their mid-Nov highs… the first phase of divergence). Some stocks began that topping process in mid-Nov (when their rebound peaks were set).
Almost all the indexes have turned their daily trends down (some did it in late-Nov, some in early-Dec, and the remainder in recent days) – showing that intermediate highs are likely intact. That negative pattern was corroborated on Dec 13 & 14 with key indexes adding negative daily 21 MAC signals to the outlook…
Stocks did plunge into late-week with the DJIA & S+P 500 dropping right to their intra-week downside targets and confirming a 1 – 2 week (or longer) top. The ideal scenario, reinforced by the recent daily trend signals, would be [reserved for subscribers]…
The Nasdaq-100 has maintained a consistent ~3-week cycle that last timed a pullback low on Nov 29 – fulfilling a ~16 trading-day high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That cycle projected a rally to new highs (fulfilled last week) and could produce a subsequent low on/around Dec 21 – the ensuing phase of that ~16 trading-day cycle. Other indexes have short-term cycles bottoming on Dec 20.
1 – 2 month INSIIDE Track Update traders could have held long positions in the DJIA (futures or related stocks) from Oct 20/21 at ~30,210 – 30,350/DJIA (YMZ) until Dec 5/6 when trailing stops signaled to exit w/avg. gains of about ~$17,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for the largest advances in 2022 – led by the Dow, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, on the heels of its Oct 20/21 buy signal. (See Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details.) They reached that objective, with most indexes retesting their mid-Aug ’22 highs, ushering in a 1 – 2 month topping phase. These 4Q ‘22 rallies have generated new 4-Shadow Signals that auger new rallies in 1Q ’23.
Weekly extremes (HLS levels) are being attacked, projecting 1 – 2 month lows in the ensuing weeks.
How Soon is Correction Low Likely?
What Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
How Would That Reinforce March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.