Stocks Confirm Early-Dec. Lows; Early-Jan. = Next Cycle High & Downturn.
12/07/21 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock indexes continue to surge after bottoming in line with daily & weekly cycles lows in early-Dec, most synergistic on Dec 3/6. Weekly trend signals corroborated that outlook and helped pinpoint recent lows in various indexes. That was reinforced by price action with the NQ-100 dropping right to its initial downside target and ‘c = a’ objective on Dec 3, while retracing 50% of the Oct 4 – Nov 22 rally.
These indexes are also tracing out a textbook intra-month (bullish) scenario that begins with a sell-off in the first three trading days of the month. That ‘misdirection’ usually leads to an intra-month low on the 3rd or 4th trading day of the month without the intra-month trend turning down. (A market needs to close below the low of the first three trading days, on any day after that, to turn a new intra-month trend down.)
The price action of the past couple months corroborates the intermediate outlook for sharp sell-offs into early-Dec (see Nov ’21 & Dec ’21 INSIIDE Tracks) followed by rallies into Jan ‘22.
Intermediate cycles concurred, projecting peaks for Nov 4 – 9 and subsequent lows in late-Nov/early-Dec. That has been forecast to lead to a culminating rally into 1Q ’22 (ideally Jan ’22) – when the NQ-100 and the S+P 500 could set higher highs while many other stocks and indexes could diverge and set equal or lower highs.
Most indexes have added validation to this potential, turning their intra-month trends up in recent days. The NQ-100, however, still needs to give a daily close above 16,431/NQH to turn its intra-month trend up.
In the short-term, some of these indexes could reach weekly LHR levels (extreme upside weekly targets) at 35,825/DJIA, 4751/ESH & 16,925/NQH). Daily trend signals could help pinpoint the next short-term peak and will be discussed in Weekly Re-Lay publications.”
Stocks set multi-week lows in early-Dec. and are expected to set the next intermediate peak in early-Jan – in sync with a ~2-month/~60-degree cycle that timed previous peaks in early-May, early-July, early-Sept & early-Nov ‘21. An ~8-month cycle – from the early-May ’21 high – concurs.
What are ramifications of DJTA, Russell 2000 and NQ-100 attacking multi-month or multi-year upside targets?
What does this mean for next sell-off – after early-Jan. ’22 cycle high??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.