Stocks Correcting; Honing Focus to August 20 – 22nd for Next Pivotal Low & Subsequent Rally.
08-06-25 – “Stock Indices are bouncing after an initial sell-off into August 1st. On a multi-week/multi-month basis, they rallied into late-July and peaked in lockstep with diverse cycles & Cycle Progressions, monthly trend indicators & various timing indicators that had been projecting a multi-month top to take hold in late-July.
They fulfilled the outlook for higher highs in the stronger indexes (S+P 500 & NQ-100) and peaked on July 28 – August 1, ’25 – in perfect sync with the latest phase of a consistent ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 24 – 31) Cycle Progression.
That ~35-week cycle represents the recurring ~8-month cycle that has been a point of focus in stock index for many years. It helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low.
That same cycle also pinpointed the late-Nov ’24 peak in leading indexes, fulfilling an ~8-month high-high-high-(high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression – while projecting a future multi-month peak for late-July ’25 (that just took hold).
The recent highs also fulfilled wave symmetry with the culminating rallies in the latest two advances each lasting 16 weeks – another pivotal timing indicator that augurs a larger-magnitude correction.
The real key was price action with the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 fulfilling monthly trend indicators (triggered near early-April low) that projected rallies to new all-time highs.
The DJTA, a weaker index, provided revealing divergence by only rebounding to the level of its flattening monthly 21 High MAC – while retesting its 2025 opening range – and then selling off sharply.
As explained leading into that time frame, a peak in late-July would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25 and fulfill a ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 18 – 22, ’25) Cycle Progression…
The key in all these indexes remains the intra-month trends and the August 1st lows. It would take daily closes below those lows to turn the new intra-month trends down and validate the outlook for a sharper drop into August 18 – 22, ’25.
Geometric (30-day) daily cycles corroborate that potential in line with recent lows on April 21, May 23, June 20 and a peak on July 23. The next phase of that cycle is August 20 – 22nd (30, 60, 90 & 120 days/ degrees later) and may have just been reinforced in the Russell 2000 with today’s high…
That perpetuates a ~2-week/13 – 14-day low (June 13) – high (June 27) – high (July 10) – high (July 23) – high (August 5/6) Cycle Progression that portends a 13 – 14 day decline into ~August 19/20th…
Gold & Silver initially sold off after rallying into July 21 – 25th cycle highs with Gold setting a secondary (‘B’ wave) high as Silver fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU (ideally 39.70 – 39.75+/SIU, where range targets converge). Both fulfilled ~5-week low-low-low-high-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progressions with Silver also fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator.
Silver reached the primary upside ‘wave 5’ target while attacking 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs – a powerful convergence of extreme upside monthly targets. That projected a correction to (at least) its 4th wave of lesser degree support..
Gold has a geometric ~9-month high-high-high-low (Feb 12 – 16, ’24) – low (Nov 11 – 15, ’24) – (low; Aug 11 – 15, ’25) Cycle Progression that comes into play near mid-month – the ideal time for a pullback low…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are in a corrective phase that should bottom in the second half of August ‘25. While the DJTA is showing greater (relative) weakness than any other index, all the indexes are focused on August 15 – 22nd, now honed to August 20 – 22nd, as the time when intermediate cycles could/should turn back up and spur a new rally.
That could trigger a new ~4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.) Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025.
Gold cycles bottom just before that – on August 11 – 15, 2025. Watch for 3Q/4Q ’25 rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’25.
Why Should Stocks Bottom On/Around August 20 – 22nd?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
Do Mid-August Gold Cycle Lows Corroborate?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.