Stocks Corroborate Outlook for Aug/Sept ‘26 Declines; DJIA Cycles Bottom in Late-Sept ‘26.
08-31-26 – “Stock Indices are mixed as the NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month peak – similar to what it did in Oct/Nov ’25. In June ‘26, it reached a decisive, multi-month upside range target (~31,000/NQU) while fulfilling its ongoing ~8-month/33 – 36-week Cycle Progression and setting its highest weekly close on June 18, 2026 (33 weeks from the late-Oct ’25 peak).
That completed a 50% rebound in time (22-week decline & 11-week rally) and projected a new drop to follow. Since that time, the NQ-100 was able to turn its weekly trend down – leading into projected multi-week Cycle Progression lows in late-July ‘26.
The Reaction to the Reaction
In textbook fashion, that weekly trend reversal led to a reactive 2 – 3-week rally that peaked in mid-August. (The weekly trend indicator is a lagging/confirming one that often reverses at the culmination of an initial wave – leading to a reactive 2 – 3-week reaction before the new trend resumes.)
That rebound twice neutralized the new weekly downtrend as it peaked and reversed lower, mid-month… right on schedule. (The Russell 2K & S+P Midcap 400 also peaked mid-month and just completed Intra-month Inverted V Reversals lower.)
Corroboration
Other indexes & indicators are reinforcing the perception that a multi-month topping phase is unfolding. From a price perspective, the DJIA reached its multi-year upside range target near 53,000/DJIA – an objective that has been in the making for almost two decades (see August ‘26 INSIIDE Track). It is still trading near 53,000/DJIA as it completes the month of August ’26.
The outer extreme of that range target and a related multi-year LLH is just below 55,000/DJIA. That is also the extreme wave target for this rally – completing a 2nd (of 3) advance that encompasses roughly 18,000/DJIA pts (see Aug ’26 IT).
From the 2020 Covid-19 low of ~18,300, the DJIA rallied to ~36,700 into late-2021 and then retreated for 8 – 9 months. When the uptrend resumed, the DJIA rallied into late-2024 (doubling the range of its 2022 correction) and then retreated to its late-2021 high – bottoming in April ‘25 near 36,600/DJIA… another example of ‘resistance turned into support’.
Since that time, the DJIA has rallied another ~18,000 points – fulfilling that 2020 – 2025 LLH and peaking near 54,700/DJIA. The DJIA peaked on Aug 5th and quickly turned short-term trends down.
As the DJIA enters the month of September, it is important to reiterate some pertinent analysis that was discussed while projecting a major, multi-month low for late-March ‘26. At the time, INSIIDE Track & the Weekly Re-Lay concluded ‘All things (timing indicators) considered, March 30th is the ideal date for an intermediate low’. Stock indexes bottomed on March 30, 2026!
The intriguing aspect of that analysis involves the ~6-month low-low-low-low-low-low Cycle Sequence in the DJIA (that had timed a multi-month low every 25 – 26 weeks since Oct ‘23)… multiple factors are indicating that another low could be seen in late-Sept/early-Oct ‘26. The Weekly Re-Lay will monitor this and provide ongoing updates regarding related specifics.
Proxy Corroboration
There were other factors reinforcing the outlook for a June/July ‘26 (multi-month) peak in the NQ-100… and a subsequent decline. One of those involved key ‘proxy’ stocks – stocks that are viewed as revealing proxies for the overall market.
A critical one is NVDA, which fulfilled multi-month Cycle Progressions in mid-May and triggered 1 – 2-month sell signals following them. That fulfilled a 28 – 29-week low (April ‘25) – high (Oct ’25) – (high; May 11 – 22, ’26) Cycle Progression while completing a textbook weekly LHR sequence, helping to pinpoint the mid-May ’26 peak.
The ensuing correction has not turned that weekly trend down, so a retest of the highs is not out of the question for that ‘proxy’.
The Countdown Continues
Last issue described how multiple indicators increased the likelihood for a quick, sharp spike low in late-July… “followed by a rally into the first half of August… Those indicators included the weekly trend & 21 MAC signals in the NQ-100, which are often triggered just before an initial spike low (and reactive rebound) takes hold.
The greatest focus was on July 29th (+ or – 1 trading day) for a low… that would also fulfill a ~4-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that already includes significant bottoms in late-Nov ’25 & late-March ’26. Those indicators portend a reactive 1 – 3-week rally – from that initial low – in preparation for a more significant decline to follow.”
That is exactly what unfolded but the reason for reviewing that is the ~4-month Cycle Progression that projected a late-July ‘26 low. It also portends a (likely) additional low in late-Nov ‘26… that would be reinforced by an intervening low at the ~2-month midpoint – in late-Sept ‘26.
That dovetails with related Cycle Progressions and also wave objectives (timing) described in the Weekly Re-Lay. The bottom line is that late-Sept ‘26 is a crucial convergence of multi-month Cycle Progressions that should be monitored closely.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month traders and investors could have again lightened up on long positions in late-June/early-July ’26.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The NQ-100 has rebounded after fulfilling analysis for an overall decline into late-July ’26 and to multi-month support at ~27,400/NQ. The NQ-100 attacked ~27,400 on July 29th – precisely fulfilling that analysis and magnifying the significance of that support level. At the very least, that level should be viewed as 1 – 3-month support.
In the DJIA and other indexes, the projected August bounce ‘cast shadows ahead’ to Sept/Oct ’26! An ongoing decline – in the weaker indexes – could stretch from mid-August into late-Sept/early-Oct ’26!
On an intra-year basis, Stock Indexes surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators that projected (well in advance) a multi-month bottom on March 30, ’26. That set the stage for the remainder of 2026 and identified last-Sept ’26 as the most likely time for a future multi-month low to take hold in the DJIA.
That is one reason why an overall decline – from the early-August ’26 peak – is expected to last into late-Sept ’26!
How Would Plunge into Late-Sept ’26 Impact 4Q ’26 Outlook?
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.