Stocks Diverging as DJTA Signals Broader Peak; Focus Intensifies on August 15 – 22nd!
08-04-25 – “Stock Indices are setting the stage for an August sell-off, with at least one key parameter now in place… The DJTA turned its daily trend down and now is tracing out the textbook 1 – 3 day reactive rally that normally follows that signal…
Equities already fulfilled the outlook for rallies into late-July when higher highs were projected for the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100. That was expected to usher in a multi-month top on July 28 – August 1, ’25 – the latest phase of a consistent ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 24 – 31) Cycle Progression.
That ~35-week cycle represents the recurring ~8-month cycle that helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low. The midpoint of the latest ~8-month cycle comes into play in the coming days (August 7/8th) and could time an initial low, particularly if another sharp drop is seen latest this week.
That ~8-month/~35-week cycle also pinpointed the late-Nov ’24 peak in many indexes, fulfilling the ~8-month high-high-high-(high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression that projected this latest (multi-month?) peak for late-July ’25.
The recent highs also fulfilled wave symmetry with the culminating rallies in the latest two advances each lasting 16 weeks. The real key was price action with the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 fulfilling monthly trend indicators (triggered near early-April low) that projected rallies to new all-time highs.
The DJTA, a weaker index, provided revealing divergence by only rebounding to the level of its flattening monthly 21 High MAC – while retesting its 2025 opening range – and then selling off sharply.
The action of the past 2 – 3 days has initially validated the ongoing projections for a peak to stretch into late-July and be followed by a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25. That would fulfill a ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression… and it would reinforce a future cycle – another 19 weeks in the future.
That future cycle comes into play during the final week(s) of 2025 and is more likely to time a multi-month peak (IF specific criteria are met in the coming ~month) that would also perpetuate a 56 – 57-week low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; late-Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Technically, that would also complete a ~4-month rally from August ’25 (IF price action validates that possibility later this month) and an ~8-month rally from the April ’25 low – perpetuating that almost-ubiquitous ~8-month cycle. The weekly trends should provide the first clues as to what kind of action is most likely between late-August and late-Dec ’25.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have entered a corrective phase that should bottom in the second half of August ‘25. While the DJTA is showing greater weakness than any other index, all the indexes are focused on August 15 – 22nd as the time when intermediate cycles could/should turn back up.
That could trigger a new ~4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.) Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025.
Why Should Stocks Bottom On/Around August 15 – 22nd?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge in early-2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.