Stocks Diverging as Key Indexes Setting Early-October ’26 Peaks; DJIA Could See More Upside.
10-07-26 – “Stock Indices rebounded in early-October after fulfilling downside projections with the DJIA declining from early-August into late-Sept ’26 – when multi-month Cycle Progressions had projected a low.
Weekly trend & 21 MAC indicators also argued for a multi-week low at that time. The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 concurred with the S+P Midcap opening the possibility for a future high in mid-Oct ’26…
…the DJIA bounced into Oct 7th and neutralized its daily downtrend while testing and reversing lower from its descending daily 21 Low MAC. It did give one positive sign – briefly turning its new intra-month trend up. As a result, that Oct 7th is now even more pivotal determining whether another rally – into mid-Oct ’26 – is a reasonable possibility…
This reinforces the growing divergence & disparity between these 6 primary indexes. The NQ-100 is at record, all-time highs while the DJIA declined for ~8 weeks and set new ~15-week lows while neutralizing its weekly uptrend & completing the first step of a potential weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence.
Meanwhile, the S+P 500 spiked down to its weekly HLS (7675/ESZ) last week and rallied, remaining capable of retesting its high and corroborating the potential for an Oct ’26 rally to new all-time highs**. It has already tested monthly resistance but would ideally spike up to – or above – 7913/ESZ.
[**The cash S+P 500 just set new highs while the Dec ’26 futures have not yet replicated that.]
That is the weekly LHR and would fulfill the next phase of a weekly ricochet pattern – in which a market whips from one extreme (LHR) to the other (HLS) and then back again (LHR), ideally in sequential weeks. The key to that would be where the S+P 500 closes on Oct 9th (weekly close).
On a broader basis, the Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap are steadily tracing out negative weekly 21 MAC reversal sequences, dropping just far enough to turn the levels of the weekly 21 Low MACs down last week. That decline stretched just long enough for the IWM ETF to do the same.
That is the first time the S+P Midcap has turned the weekly 21 MAC down since Feb 2025. It did that while spiking lower and then generating a weekly 2 Close Reversal higher – projecting a rally that could last into mid-Oct..
The key to all the indexes is the October 1st low. Daily closes below those lows will signal a new wave down. Until that occurs, there is the chance for higher highs into next week.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The DJIA peaked in early-August with other indexes peaking in mid-August – all projecting significant declines into late-Sept/early-Oct ’26! That was fulfilled and projected an early-October ’26 rebound. The weekly trends should provide additional clues regarding what to expect throughout 4Q 2026.
In contrast, the S+P 500 & NQ-100 surged to new all-time highs leading into early-October Cycle Progressions… setting the stage for a late-Oct ’26 sell-off.
How Does Plunge into Late-Sept ’26 Impact 4Q ’26 Outlook?
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.