Stocks Diverging While Prepping for August 20 – 22nd Low; Gold Remains Strong.
08-13-25 – “Stock indices are partially diverging after rallying into late-July and initially peaking in fulfillment of diverse Cycle Progressions & cycles and monthly trend & timing indicators.
During their initial sell-off, into August 1st, only the DJTA was able to turn its daily trend down. Consequently, it is the only index not currently attacking or spiking above its late-July highs…
After that sell-off into August 1st, all the indexes needed to subsequently close below their August 1st lows to turn the intra-month trends down and elevate that decline to more than just a 1 – 2-week drop (that would have also turned their daily trends down). None of them were able to do so.
In the ~week that followed, most indexes turned their intra-month trends up – projecting additional upside into mid-month (the same time the DJTA daily Cycle Progression recurs). That is where they now find themselves – entering mid-August.
The stronger S+P 500 & NQ-100 were on track to spike up to weekly & monthly resistance levels (6494 – 6521/ESU & 23,996 – 24,186/NQU) before an intermediate peak becomes more likely. They just accomplished that today – leading into mid-month.
That still allows time for a sell-off into the next intermediate cycle low – most synergistic at August 20 – 22nd…
Gold & Silver initially sold off after rallying into July 21 – 25th cycle highs with Gold setting a lower high as Silver fulfilled ongoing analysis for a surge to 39.50 – 40.10/SIU (ideally 39.70 – 39.75+/SIU, where range targets converge).
Silver reached the primary upside ‘wave 5’ target while attacking 4 of the latest 5 monthly LHRs – a powerful convergence of extreme upside monthly targets… Both fulfilled ~5-week low-low-low-high-(high; July 21 – 25, ’25) Cycle Progressions with Silver also fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator at that time.
Gold has since rallied to spike above (but not yet close above) that high while Silver rebounded to the ideal level for a secondary peak. Both retreated with Gold dropping right to its weekly HLS (3378/GCZ) while twice neutralizing its daily uptrend. It would not turn negative until a daily close below 3379.1/GCZ.
Gold has remained in a weekly uptrend during its entire consolidation phase (since its late-April cycle peak) and just rallied back above its rising weekly 21 High MAC, so new highs cannot be discounted…
The XAU & HUI remain in overall uptrends with the XAU attacking its primary upside target – on a 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month basis – at ~233.00/XAU. It could easily spike up to its monthly LHR (extreme upside target for August ’25) at 240.61/XAU…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are focused on August 20 – 22nd as the ideal time for the next intermediate low. That could trigger a new 2 – 4-week and possible 2 – 4-month advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) IF specific criteria are met in late-August & early-September. (Another 16 – 18-week rally – if it begins in late-August – would mature in late-2025 when more significant cycles peak.)
Monthly trend indicators are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes… providing another bullish factor into late-2025. The DJTA is showing greater (relative) weakness than any other index and could trade differently after the August 20 – 22nd cycle low.
Gold cycles bottom around the same time. Watch for 3Q/4Q ’25 rally into late-Oct/early-Nov ’25. Platinum & Palladium should also bottom in August ’25.
Why Should Stocks Bottom On/Around August 20 – 22nd?
Do August ‘25 Gold, Platinum & Palladium Cycle Lows Corroborate?
Are New Multi-Month Rallies Likely to Begin in Late-August?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.