Stocks (DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap) Project Declines into Late-Sept/Early-Oct ‘26.
09-16-26 – “Stock Indices remain on track for an overall decline from mid-August into late-Sept/early-Oct ’26 as they continue to trace out a multi-month topping process that has been led by the NQ-100…
They have sold off after bouncing and setting intra-month highs on Sept 3/4th – the latest phase in a geometric ~1-month/~30-degree high (May 7) – high (June 4) – high (July 7) – high (August 5) – (high; Sept 3/4, ’26) Cycle Progression.
That was also the ideal time for an intra-month high if the overall month is going to be a negative one (see 9/02/26 Alert). They (DJIA, S+P 400 & 500, and Russell 2000) turned their intra-month trends down – validating those highs and portending selling into (at least) mid-month… where they are now.
Last week, they reinforced this scenario after turning those intra-month trends down. The DJIA, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 bounced right back to their month-opening ranges (Sept 1st lows) without closing back above them – validating the new intra-month downtrends and projecting a new wave of selling into (at least) Sept 15/16th – mid-month.
They have fulfilled that but are reinforcing several broader, over-arching indicators that are signaling larger-magnitude reversals lower…
The NQ-100 weekly trend & 21 MAC are tracing out corroborating reversal sequences… The DJTA is tracing out a similar pair of reversal signals and is trading below its weekly 21 Low MAC. It just turned the direction of that 21 Low MAC down this week – another reinforcement of a higher-magnitude reversal to the downside.
The Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 corroborated the September outlook with Intra-month Inverted V Reversals lower in August.
They are both trading below their weekly 21 Low MACs with the Russell 2000 just turning its weekly trend down and reinforcing the likelihood for a drop below 2800/QR (~272 is related level in IWM ETF).
All of this increases the likelihood for an overall decline from mid-Aug into late-Sept ’26 – linked to the same DJIA cycle that helped pinpoint the late-March ’26 low (see Sept ’26 INSIIDE Track).
The most telling factor – for the 4Q ’26 outlook – will be the weekly trends in all the indexes. The NQ-100 began this sequence by turning its weekly trend down in July and projecting a reactive rally… At the same time, many other indexes were spiking to slight new highs – creating divergence that reinforced a developing top.
The key is now whether the ‘lagging’ indexes will turn their weekly trends down during this (expected) drop into late-Sept ’26. If so, that would reveal some critical components of what to expect in 4Q ’26
The DJIA just plunged to its initial downside target – near 51,500 – and is likely to see lower levels as the month progresses.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
The NQ-100 rebounded after fulfilling analysis for an overall decline into late-July ’26 and to multi-month support at ~27,400/NQ… attacking ~27,400 on July 29th & precisely fulfilling that analysis. That magnified the significance of that support level, which should be treated as multi-month support.
The DJIA peaked in early-August with other indexes peaking in mid-August – all projecting significant declines into late-Sept/early-Oct ’26! The weekly trends should provide additional clues.
On an intra-year basis, Stock Indexes reached and then surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators that projected a multi-month bottom on March 30, ’26. That set the stage for the remainder of 2026 and identified last-Sept ’26 as the most likely time for a future multi-month low to take hold in the DJIA.
That is one reason why an overall August/Sept decline has been expected!
How Would Plunge into Late-Sept ’26 Impact 4Q ’26 Outlook?
See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.