Stocks & Energy Markets Reinforce Date of Aggression with New Surges.
04-29-26 – “Outlook 2026 – Natural Year 2026/27
The first ‘month’ of the Natural Year is often a revealing one, setting the stage for the 11 months that follow… while establishing important parameters for multi-month support and/or resistance.
The Natural Year begins on the Vernal equinox (March 19/20) and carries forward to the ensuing March 19th. In keeping with pivotal ‘opening range’ focus and indicators, the first ~30 days of each new Natural Year – from March 20th into April 19th – provide a type of litmus test for what is likely to follow in that ‘year’.
It is not just the markets that pay attention to this calendar. It is the entire Earth… whether it’s inhabitants recognize that or not. It is a time of seasonal and psychological change that dates back millennia.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has had a dramatic impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in precise sync with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/agriculture-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun and established their calendars based on that focus – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year. It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’.
Signs of Change
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago when the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20 to April 19/ 20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’ on many levels.
Opening Range
It is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons. In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year.
That is a critical factor in determining the ensuing intra-year trend. From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. Once a market exceeds that range (higher or lower) and closes accordingly, it provides a key ‘intra-year’ trend signal.
This ‘month’ is the ’month of aggression’ and culminates with the ’week of aggression’ (April 13 – 19th) and ultimately with the Date of Aggression (April 19th). It is a time that is annually monitored.
DoA & Cycle Progressions
In many instances, specific markets will provide revealing clues as to what to expect leading into – and out of – the Date of Aggression. The April ‘26 issue described that in respect to the energy markets and a key stock index (DJTA) that began its latest rally on March 19/20, ‘26…
3-30-26 – “The action in the DJTA is also setting up for a perfect validation of the Natural Year opening range and Date of Aggression shift pattern. (See “17-Year Cycle, Natural Year & Date of Aggression” and “Date of Aggression 2022… and Natural Year ’22/23”)
As it turned out, that index was temporarily hijacked by the meme-like action of CAR (Avis Budget Group) – surging from 94.29 on March 19th to 847.70 on April 22, ’26… and then crashing back to 155.0 in only a week.
Oil & Nature
Another market was Crude, which had multiple monthly low-low Cycle Progressions coming back into play on April 20 – 24, ‘26. That is exactly when the energy complex ended a 40-day corrective period (the ‘period of testing’) and began a new wave higher on the heels of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz (April 18th) and the US seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo ship (ON the Date of Aggression – April 19th) – which Iran viewed as an act of aggression spurring threats of future retaliation.
Hmmm.
Cycle Progression Progressions
The inset on page 5 reiterates some of what has been discussed in recent Weekly Re-Lay publications. One application – that was discussed for weeks prior to the March 30th low in stock indexes – was to the NQ-100 and a pair of corroborating Cycle Progressions focusing attention on March 30th.
Another application is to the energy markets and the synergistic convergence of multiple Cycle Progressions in early-Jan ‘26 – projecting a 1Q ‘26 surge and an overall advance into May – July ‘26. The accompanying HCP diagrams highlight the ~8 & ~9-10-month cycles that timed the Jan ’26 lows. Based on the positioning of those lows, they should spur rallies of 50% – .618 (~4 – 6 months). The Date of Aggression action reinforced that.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators on March 30, ’26. Many indexes also fulfilled major downside price objectives at their late-March ’26 lows – setting decisive bottoms.
That ushered in a multi-month bottom in sync with an uncanny geometric cycle in the DJIA and the textbook scenario for the ~8-Month Cycle Progression in the NQ-100. The NQ-100 projected a 2 – 3-month surge to follow. As described in late-March ’26:
3-30-26 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the outlook for a large sell-off in March ’26… They have stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal ~2-week period for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold… A low on March 30 – April 3, ’26 would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 2, ’26) Cycle Progression.
All things (timing indicators) considered, March 30th is the ideal date for an intermediate low…
The DJTA (Transportation Average) is reinforcing this… it turned its daily trend up… portending a quick, reactive 2 – 3 day pullback before a larger rally. The 3rd day of that reactive 2 – 3-day pullback is today – March 30th. It has not even neutralized its daily uptrend, reinforcing the potential for a secondary low and the onset of a larger advance.”
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincided with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in the first half of 2026. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products. Unleaded Gas should stretch a more significant peak into at least May ’26 – when broader monthly Cycle Progressions peak. However, oil stocks may have already set multi-month peaks while fulfilling a myriad of Cycle Progressions in late-March ‘26.
What Does Equity/Energy Connection Bode for May/June ’26?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.