Stocks Enter New Natural Year; April ’24 Sell-off Expected… into April 19th.
03/19/24 – “The Natural Year
The Natural Year begins on each vernal equinox (start of Spring) and flows through to the next. The first month of that Natural Year is a decisive time… If one were to begin a calendar on the vernal equinox (March 20), the first month of that year would end on April 19/20th.
It would be the ‘opening range’ for that Natural Year; a pivotal and determining factor for the ensuing intra-year trend. Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, measured by the solstices and equinoxes. This has been true in agrarian (farming-based) societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun (and established their calendars based on that focus) – much of which is still prevalent in our calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death). March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal.
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks a pivotal transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’.
In 2024, many markets are set up for significant ‘change’ in the weeks surrounding March 20/21st.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are attacking multi-year upside targets as they enter the start of Natural Year 2024/25 – a time when a significant shift is expected in many markets. The first month of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times initial and revealing shifts that influence the remainder of that Natural Year. In the case of 2024, that period is projected to time an initial sell-off in equity markets.
That also aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression – April 19th. The key will be what occurs during that (expected) decline, particularly with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs. This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point. Reinforcing this, a leading stock – NVDA – just attacked its multi-month upside target near 950… and could soon see a sharp correction.
What Would Trigger a Drop into ~April 19th?
How Does This Align with 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This be an Early Warning Sign for 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.