Stocks Enter Topping Phase Before Likely (Brief) Drop; NQ-100 Remains Bullish.
07-30-25 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the latest phase of the outlook for culminating rallies into late-July when higher highs were most likely in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100… followed by quick, sharp sell-offs in the first 2 – 3 weeks of August…
Ever since the April 7th lows, the monthly trend indicator in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 has projected a multi-month rally to new all-time highs. That has been fulfilled in the S+P 500 & NQ-100 with the DJIA attacking its late-2024 all-time high (recent high close was 45,010; 12/04/24 high close was 45,014/DJIA).
In keeping with the recurring pattern, the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are leading a reversal lower with the DJTA peaking at its flattening monthly 21 High MAC while retesting its 2025 opening range (only neutralizing its intra-year trend) and then selling off sharply.
The Russell 2000 is tracing out a textbook topping pattern and could corroborate that with a daily close below 2200/QRU. Tomorrow’s month-ending action could provide additional levels of confirmation…
At the opposite extreme, the NQ-100 is likely to be the last to peak (like the final car in the roller coaster train to pass the summit… before all the cars decline in tandem). It has a pair of weekly LHR levels, along with corroborating resistance & upside targets, just above 23,800/NQU… so a final spike high is likely.
If an intermediate peak is set this week, it would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25 and fulfill an overlapping ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – linked to the Nov ’24 – April ’25 declines in a majority of the major indexes.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling projections for surges to new all-time highs after reaching major 1 – 2-year downside price targets in early-April ’25 and signaling major lows. Those lows fulfilled related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 20 – 30+% plunges in 2025 and set what should be 6 – 12 month bottoms in sync with many bullish monthly indicators triggered at that time. This upside fulfillment could trigger a quick round of selling before a new advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) takes hold.
Subsequent cycle lows align in the second half of August ’25 and should usher in a new up cycle. (A new 16 – 18-week rally could begin in late-August and mature in late-2025.) Monthly & weekly trend indicators are positive and are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes. With this occurring near/after mid-year, it provides another bullish factor into late-2025.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium are fulfilling the convincing buy signals triggered in early-April – when 6 – 12 month (or 1 – 2 year) bottoms were projected. They are also fulfilling intermediate cycle peaks in late-July… as part of broader 1 – 2-year advances.
Will New All-Time Highs Trigger a Brief, Reactive Sell-off in Stocks?
How Would Late-July ’25 Highs Reinforce Subsequent Late-2025 Cycle Highs?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.