Stocks Fulfill Late-July Cycle Highs; Focus on Late-August Cycle Lows.
07-31-25 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the latest phase of the outlook for overall rallies (from their early-April lows) into late-July ’25 – when multi-month cycles peak. As explained last month, they were poised to rally into a penultimate high in early-July, pull back into mid-month, and then rally to higher (ultimate) highs in late-July.
That has been, and still is, expected to usher in a multi-month top on July 28 – August 1, ’25 – the latest phase of a consistent ~35-week high (late-July ‘23) high (late-Mar ’24) – high (late-Nov ’24) – (high; July 24 – 31) Cycle Progression.
That ~35-week cycle represents the recurring ~8-month cycle that helped pinpoint April 3rd – 7th as the most likely time for a multi-month bottom… 8 months from the early-August ’24 low.
That cycle also pinpointed the late-Nov ’24 peak in leading indexes, fulfilling an ~8-month high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-Mar ’24) – (high; late-Nov ’24) Cycle Progression.
A high in the current week would also fulfill wave symmetry with the culminating rallies in the latest two advances – in Aug – Nov ’24 & April – late-July ’25 – each lasting 16 weeks in duration.
The S+P Midcap 400 is poised to complete its 4th advance of 16 – 18 weeks (and 4 of 5 similar- duration rallies since the Oct ’22 bottom).
Equally important is price action.
Ever since the April 7th lows, the monthly trend indicator in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 has projected a multi-month rally to new all-time highs. The S+P 500 & NQ-100 already fulfilled that.
For all intents and purposes, the DJIA is doing the same thing – having set its highest recent daily close at 45,010/DJIA (just below the record 45,014 close of early-Dec ‘24). That is the index that has been viewed as the bellwether for this outlook… and is beginning to signal this advance has reached its upside targets – in BOTH price AND time.
In keeping with the same pattern that has unfolded at most multi-month turning points, the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 are leading a reversal lower with the DJTA peaking at its flattening monthly 21 High MAC while retesting its 2025 opening range (only neutralizing its intra-year trend) and then selling off sharply.
The Russell 2000 is tracing out a textbook topping pattern and could corroborate that with a daily close below 2200/QRU. The month-ending action could provide additional levels of confirmation.
[The Russell 2000 is the one index that turned its monthly trend down in April ’25 – reinforcing the outlook for a multi-month low while projecting a 2 – 3 month reactive bounce (which has just transpired) followed by a new wave down.]
At the opposite extreme, the NQ-100 is likely to be the last to peak (like the final car in the roller coaster train to pass the summit… before all the cars decline in tandem). It has a pair of weekly LHR levels, along with corroborating resistance & upside targets, just above 23,800/NQU… portending a final spike high on July 31st.
If an intermediate peak is set this week, it would likely spur a sharp 2 – 3 week decline into late-August ’25 and fulfill an overlapping ~19-week high-low-(low; Aug 20 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – linked to the Nov ’24 – April ’25 declines in a majority of the major indexes.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling projections for surges to new all-time highs after reaching major 1 – 2-year downside price targets in early-April ’25 and signaling major lows. Those lows fulfilled related 17-Year Cycle analysis for 20 – 30+% plunges in 2025 and set what should be 6 – 12 month bottoms in sync with many bullish monthly indicators triggered at that time. This upside fulfillment could trigger a quick round of selling before a new advance (into late-2025/early-2026??) takes hold.
Subsequent cycle lows align in the second half of August ’25 and should usher in a new up cycle. (A new 16 – 18-week rally could begin in late-August and mature in late-2025.) Monthly & weekly trend indicators are positive and are being reinforced by intra-year trends turning up in multiple indexes. With this occurring near/after mid-year, it provides another bullish factor into late-2025.
Silver, Platinum & Palladium are fulfilling the convincing buy signals triggered in early-April – when 6 – 12 month (or 1 – 2 year) bottoms were projected. They are also fulfilling intermediate cycle peaks in late-July… as part of broader 1 – 2-year advances.
Will New All-Time Highs Trigger a Brief, Reactive Sell-off in Stocks?
How Would Late-July ’25 Highs Reinforce Subsequent Late-2025 Cycle Highs?
How High Can Stocks Surge After Fulfilling 17-Year Cycle Plunge?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.