Stocks Fulfill Upside Targets; Divergent Peak Imminent; NQ-100 Poised to Drop into early-Jan ‘23!
12/12/22 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Before delving into market analysis, there is a revealing article on today’s spaceweather.com home page – titled ‘The Extended Solar Cycle’. It powerfully corroborates what INSIIDE Track has been claiming for over 20 years… the 17-Year Cycle is likely the key (and is a sunspot cycle unrecognized – except by INSIIDE Track readers – until now; that is also why we have owned the 17yearcycle.com domain for many years and have specific 17-Year Cycle sections on our other sites). Here is a small excerpt:
“…there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University’s Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles happening at the same time, and neither is 11 years long.
“We call it ‘the Extended Solar Cycle,'” says lead author Scott McIntosh of NCAR. “There are two overlapping patterns of activity on the sun, each lasting about 17 years.”
Solar physicists have long suspected this might be true…11 years vs. 17 years. 1 cycle vs. 2 cycles. What difference does it make?
“The Extended Solar Cycle may be telling us something crucial about what’s happening deep inside the sun where sunspot magnetic fields are generated,” says McIntosh. “It poses significant challenges to prevalent dynamo theories of the solar cycle.” spaceweather.com
Stock Indices
Stock Indices remain in 1 – 2 month uptrends with the DJIA fulfilling ongoing projections for an overall advance to (at least) 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles. They fulfilled analysis for new surges into early-Dec and then pulled back in line with the weekly trend patterns and the intra-month (down) trend signals triggered last week.
That came shortly after the DJIA fulfilled ongoing projections (since late-Sept ’22) for an overall advance into late-Nov/early-Dec and to 34,200 – 34,600 – a 4th quarter gain of ~20% that fulfills the 12-Year & 24-Year Mid-Term Election Cycles. It peaked at 34,595/DJIA.
It also occurred as several indexes rallied back to, and remained just below, their mid-Aug ’22 peaks – the ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ upside targets for these rallies. Daily & weekly cycles would still allow for a subsequent peak in Dec ’22 – with the potential for divergent highs (higher highs in some stocks/indexes and lower highs in others)…
The NQ-100, continues to lag the others and reinforce its overall bearishness. The NQ-100 needs a weekly close above 12,236/NQH to turn its weekly trend up and to elevate this rebound to the next higher magnitude. (If that fails to occur on Dec 16, the NQ-100 could see a drop to new lows into January ’23.)
Most indexes neutralized their daily uptrends but did NOT turn them down during last week’s sell-off. That ushers in the potential for a low now and a rally to new highs. They would not turn those daily trends negative until daily closes below 33,418/DJIA & 3945/ESH. Ironically, the NQH did not even neutralize its daily uptrend – during last week’s pullback – and would not do so until a daily close below 11,580/NQH.
(The Russell 2000 is one exception, which did turn its daily trend down – ushering in the potential for a multi-day rebound into Dec 15/16 that could peak below its recent high. All of this could be setting up for a divergent peak in the next 1 – 2 weeks.)
1 – 2 month INSIIDE Track Update traders could have held long positions in the DJIA (futures or related stocks) from Oct 20/21 at ~30,210 – 30,350/DJIA (YMZ) until Dec 5/6 when trailing stops signaled to exit w/avg. gains of about ~$17,000/contract.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes fulfilled projections for the largest advances in 2022 – led by the Dow, which was forecast to reach 34,200 – 34,600/DJIA in late-Nov/early-Dec ’22, on the heels of its Oct 20/21 buy signal. (See Oct & Nov ’22 INSIIDE Tracks & Weekly Re-Lays for details.) They have reached that objective, ushering in a potential topping phase that could hold for 2 – 3 months. These rallies have generated new 4-Shadow Signals that auger larger rallies in 1Q ’23.
Most indexes fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave and price targets in Sept/Oct ‘22, projecting a subsequent higher-magnitude rally in 4Q ’22 – back to/toward their mid-Aug ’22 highs. That has reached fruition with initial long positions triggering an exit signal near the highs and ushering in the time for a 1 – 2 month consolidation period.
What Does 4Q ’22 4-Shadow Signal Portend for 1Q ‘23?
What Would Dec ’22 Sell-off Signify… and Set Up?
How Would That Reinforce March ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.