Stocks (Initially) Peaking Along with GSCI Inflation Index; Energy Cycles Peak in ~May ‘26.
05-09-26 – “Stock indexes surged into late-April/early-May with the DJIA again failing to turn its weekly trend up. In contrast, the NQ-100 has surged with one particular index (SOX) seeing a rally that looks very parabolic…
Stock Indices remain strong, surging into late-April and some extending rallies into early-May. Multiple indexes are warning of an impending peak – of intermediate or larger magnitude. First is the DJIA, which failed – for the third straight time – to turn its weekly trend up.
In doing so, the DJIA has perpetuated a series of ~6-week cycles that connect the early-Oct low, mid-Nov low, late-Dec low, early-Feb high, late-March low and now an early-May ’26 high.
That reinforces the other Dow indexes, which have already signaled reversals lower. Then there is the Russell 2000, which has just completed a ~13-month rally – the 5th advance of that ~same duration in the past 7.5 years.
The NQ-100 just attacked its weekly LHR (29,299/NQ) while spiking into its monthly resistance. Both factors signal an impending top. Then there is the S+P 500…
On a multi-year basis, the S+P 500 is attacking a critical range-trading target that is linked to highs & lows of the past ~27 years. It is a roughly 1300/SP set of ranges that connect the July ’09 secondary low (~900) to the 2015/’16 highs (~2200) that acted as support for the 2020 low (~2200).
That led to the late-’20 highs & ensuing 2022 low (~3500), the late-‘21/early-’22 highs and subsequent 2025 low (~4800) and the late-‘24/ early-’25 highs (~6100/SP).
The June ’25 breakout above 6100/SP turned focus to ~7400/SP – another ~1300 points higher and the next range target in this ongoing series – which has just been attacked…
Stock indices are surging into May 11th/12th – the latest phase of a geometric, ~3-month/~90-degree high (May 16) – high (Aug 13) – high (Nov 12) – high (Feb 11/12) – (high; May 11/12, ’26) Cycle Progression in several key indexes. A multi-week top appears imminent…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil rallied into early-May ’26, fulfilling the latest phase of a ~4-week/27 – 28-day low (Dec 16) – high (Jan 14) – high (Feb 11) – high (March 9) – high (April 6/7) – (high; May 4th/5th, ’26) Cycle Progression that dovetailed with a ~4-Year Cycle Progression in Unleaded Gas.
They sold off and turned their intra-month trends down but would not turn their daily trends down until daily closes below their May 6th lows…
On a broader basis, Unleaded Gas has a consistent ~4-year cycle that timed peaks (at least 6 – 12 months & often 1 – 2 years in duration) in May – July 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 & 2022… projecting a similar peak in May – July 2026.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators on March 30, ’26… into May ’26. Many indexes fulfilled major downside price objectives at their late-March ’26 lows – setting decisive lows that could hold for many months. The NQ-100 projected a 2 – 3-month surge to follow. As described in late-March ’26:
3-30-26 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the outlook for a large sell-off in March ’26… They have stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal ~2-week period for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold… A low on March 30 – April 3, ’26 would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 2, ’26) Cycle Progression.
All things (timing indicators) considered, March 30th is the ideal date for an intermediate low…
The DJTA (Transportation Average) is reinforcing this… it turned its daily trend up… portending a quick, reactive 2 – 3 day pullback before a larger rally. The 3rd day of that reactive 2 – 3-day pullback is today – March 30th. It has not even neutralized its daily uptrend, reinforcing the potential for a secondary low and the onset of a larger advance.”
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincided with that as inflation markets projected trouble in the first half of 2026. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products. Inflation indicators (GSCI, etc.) projected an early-May ’26 multi-month peak as Unleaded Gas also projects a peak this month.
How is Inflation (GSCI) Cycle Peak Likely to Impact Other Markets?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.