Stocks Intensify Focus on February 9/12th; Fulfilling Multi-Year Upside Objectives!
01/31/24 – “Equities rallied from cycle lows in late-October and are fulfilling the outlook for overall advances (from late-2022 & early-2023) into Jan/Feb 2024 – when a more significant peak is expected. 3 – 6 month peaks are expected in this time frame as multi-year cycles begin to pave the way for another significant sell-off in 2024/2025…
Stock Indices have fulfilled analysis for an overall rally from late-October ’23 into January/February ’24 – when a more significant top is still expected. A high in Jan/Feb ’24 would fulfill late-October buy signals and the latest phase of an uncanny ~24-Month/~2-Year Cycle.
Stock indexes set peaks in Jan/Feb ‘22, Jan/Feb ‘20 & Jan/Feb ‘18 – all of which led to substantial sell-offs in the months that followed. The setup for each 2-Year Cycle peak was also similar…
In 2018, stocks rallied from Oct ’17 into Jan ’18.
In 2020, stocks rallied from Oct ’19 into Jan ’20.
In 2022, stocks rallied from Oct ’21 into Jan ’22.
And in 2023/24, stocks began a strong rally in October ’23… and advanced into Jan ‘24.
If a high is set in Jan/Feb. ‘24, that would perpetuate a ~24-month low (Jan/ Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan/Feb ’20) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; Jan/Feb. 2024) Cycle Progression.
2024 Cycle Highs
All of the indexes are going through a lengthy topping process, reinforcing the potential for a repeat of the 17-Year Cycle (of stock market declines) in 2024/ 2025. That would perpetuate an uncanny cycle that timed 20 – 50% declines in 2007/2008, 1990, 1973/ 74, 1956 & 1939… coinciding with Middle East wars.
Price and wave structure is reinforcing this potential. Several indexes – including the DJTA (and DOWU, DOWC), Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 – remain well below their 2021 peaks, reinforcing that this entire rally is a large-scale ’B’ wave bounce following the ’A’ wave decline that bottomed in June & Sept 2022. A similar – or larger – magnitude ’C’ wave decline should follow.
However, when viewed independently, this 17-Year Cycle is a much broader cycle and does not (yet) guarantee that a Jan/Feb 2024 peak – if that is fulfilled – would mark the ultimate peak for 2024.
Based on the 17-Year Cycle, another 25 – 35% (or larger) decline is expected in 2024/2025… once a peak is set. That is the key point… 2024 has the potential to resemble [reserved for subscribers]…
These parallels and longer-term cycles will remain in focus throughout 2024, but specific price analysis should help to hone the outlook…
On a 1 – 2 year basis, the DJIA remains on track to ultimately reach its multi-year LLH (39,107/DJIA) – potentially in Jan/Feb ’24 – and fulfill a major upside objective created by its 2020 & 2022 lows.
That level is reinforced by a multi-year range target at 39,000 – 39,200/DJIA, incorporating the Sept/Oct ’22 lows near 28,700, the Feb ’22 & Oct ’23 ‘midway’ lows near 32,200, and the Aug ’21, Feb ’22 & July/Aug ’23 highs near 35,700/DJIA.
When the DJIA closed above 35,700 in late-Nov ’23, it corroborated the late-October signals & reinforced projections for a surge above 39,000/DJIA. A spike above 39,000/DJIA would also double the magnitude of the previous ~90-degree decline – from late-July into late-Oct ’23… 17,700 – 18,200/NQ is the equivalent range in the Nasdaq-100.
6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year traders and investors should be lightening up on long positions in conjunction with a downturn projected for 1Q 2024.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have rallied into the latest phase of the uncanny 2-Year Cycle in January/February 2024.
The DJIA is approaching its 1 – 2 year upside target at 39,000 – 39,200 as the NQ-100 has initially tested its respective 1 – 2 year upside target at 17,800 – 18,200/NQ (stemming from multi-year bottoming signals in late-2022). In late-December ’23, the Russell 2000 attacked its 1 – 2 year upside target at 2085 – 2100… so it has already fulfilled a major objective and is trying to confirm a multi-month top.
Weekly cycles, LHRs, and other timing indicators project a pivotal time surrounding February 9/10, 2024 – the completion of the initial ‘period of testing’ for 2024.
What Would Signal a Multi-Week Peak? …a Multi-Month Peak??
Why is February 9/12th Pivotal for Equities?
Why is April/May 2024 Pivotal for Stocks?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.