Stocks Poised for 1 – 2 Week Low; Rebound into Late-Nov./early-Dec. Cycle Peak.
Stocks Poised for 1 – 2 Week Low; Rebound into Late-Nov./early-Dec. Cycle Peak.
11/19/18 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update: Stock Indices remain above their Oct. 29 lows, reinforcing the volatile consolidation that has taken hold since then. Within that context, the daily & weekly trends are down – showing recurring weakness.
The Nasdaq 100 remains the weakest and was expected to set its rebound peak on Nov. 5 – 9, the latest phase of its 5-week high-high-high-(high) & 10-week low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions. It fulfilled that with the Nov. 8 peak and has sold off since then…
One added point of interest is a recurring, 13 – 14 trading-day cycle in AMZN. It has created a high-high-high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that portends a low for today, Nov. 19. It could see a spike low tomorrow, but would be expected to close higher on the day IF that cycle is to still be considered valid.
Since its Nov. 8, AMZN has been projecting a retest of the late-Oct. low – based on its daily trend pattern (the daily downtrend turned neutral twice, as AMZN rallied into Nov. 8, but could not turn up – signaling a drop back to the lows). A retest of its late-Oct. low would fulfill that near-term downside potential.
All of the primary (3) indexes attacked their daily HLS levels today, with the DJIA & ESZ holding those extreme downside targets. That portends another imminent daily low. Ideally, the daily closes would hold at or above weekly support levels (printed above) – which are already being tested – and then reverse higher.
Since the short-term action is very fast-paced, intermediate traders should stay focused on the weekly trends and what they continue to reveal about the potential for another leg down in Dec. and/or Jan. 2019.”
Stocks are powerfully reinforcing the outlook for an overall decline in 4Q 2018. with the DJIA targeted to reach 22,100 in 2018 and the Nasdaq 100 projected to drop to at least 6200 in 4Q ’18. While setting initial lows in late-Oct., stock indexes turned their weekly trends down – confirming that 3 – 6 month peaks were intact. That pattern projects a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce (fulfilled with the rallies into Nov. 8) followed by a more convincing drop below those (late-Oct.) lows.
The outlook could turn the most negative in Dec. if an intervening (lower) peak is set in late-Nov./early-Dec. The action of late-Sept. – mid-Nov. ’18 is powerfully corroborating what is expected for late-2018/early-2019 – with a more significant decline projected to take hold in Dec. ’18.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.