Stocks Poised for Intermediate Peak; Sell-off in Early-May. Energy Remains Strong
04-22-26 – “The subject of an ideal 21 MAC reversal sequence is often discussed – citing the multi-stepped process of a market coming off an extreme high or low and then fulfilling a series (sequence) of signals that link price action to the corresponding 21 MACs (and 21 MARCs) in an unfolding reversal.
Once that reversal sequence is complete, and a market then accelerates into a new trending move, there is another 21 MAC sequence that usually unfolds – at least in the ‘ideal’ or ‘textbook’ examples. The final phases of that trending sequence provide important clues as to an impending high or low.
In the textbook sequence, those steps are also in sync with corresponding waves – in an overall Elliott Wave sequence. They help to corroborate each other and provide further clarity to market movement.
In the ideal 21 MAC scenario, a new downtrend (after a significant top) will accelerate lower and rapidly create substantial distance between the current price levels and the declining 21 MAC. That is often the ‘3’ wave or ‘iii of 3’ wave decline.
After an initial low is set, that market will rebound and often test the descending 21 Low MAC as it drops to meet the rebounding price. That is the peak of an intervening bounce (‘4’ wave or ‘iv of 3’ wave high). That market then resumes its decline.
As it accelerates to significantly lower lows, that market becomes overextended and will often enter a more complex (upward) correction as the battle between bulls and bears reaches an impasse.
The market will often retest the descending 21 Low MAC – and even appear to be reversing lower from that moving resistance – but then breaks above that level and eventually makes it to the declining 21 High MAC. In the ideal scenario, that rebound will often exceed the magnitude of the preceding rebound and create a corroborating 4-Shadow Signal.
That bounce – by breaking above the falling 21 Low MAC (and potentially exceeding the previous rally’s magnitude) reveals that the selling pressure is dissipating… but not yet complete.
In a textbook case, the market peaks near that 21 High MAC and then drops to one more additional new low – the ‘wave 5’ low. (The inverse of this entire scenario is applicable to an evolving uptrend.)
That low then becomes a key part of a new 21 MAC reversal sequence… to the upside.
This sequence will be revisited & elaborated in future publications but there is at least one potential & noteworthy example of this pattern unfolding – on the weekly chart of Bitcoin (and some other cryptos).
In early-Nov ’25, Bitcoin completed a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence (lower) and accelerated lower into mid-Nov ’25.
It dropped far enough that it took Bitcoin almost two months to rebound to its descending weekly 21 Low MAC. That spurred a new round of selling.
Bitcoin then plunged into early-Feb ’26 and reached key downside targets. It has now rebounded for over two months and exceeded the magnitude of its Nov – Jan ’26 rebound. From a time & price perspective, that is creating a weekly 4-Shadow Signal.
In the ideal scenario, Bitcoin would test its declining weekly 21 High MAC*** (currently near 82,500 but falling each week) and then reverse lower without giving a weekly close above that level. That would/ should then spur a drop to new lows.
(***The level of the still rising monthly 21 Low MAC and the level of the Nov ’25 low – a pivotal Elliott Wave resistance point – are just below that declining weekly 21 High MAC, adding synergy.)…
Stock Indices have surged into a pivotal time – from April 23/24th into April 30th – when a myriad of timing indicators portend an intermediate peak.
Among other factors, this is based on weekly trend patterns, weekly LHR indicators and a ~3-month/ ~90-degree high (July 28-31, ’25) – high (Oct 29, ’25) high (Jan 28, ’26) – (high; April 27 – 30, ’26) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100 & S+P 500… as well as a 50% time rebound in those indexes.
The DJTA might be leading a reversal lower but most indexes remain strong. The coming days should provide some clarity as to specifics for an impending (potential) peak.
The weekly trend indicator pinpoints this week as a decisive one while the weekly LHR is equally focused on this week and next week. The ~3-month Cycle Progression and 50% time rebound argue for a peak to stretch into next week.
So, a high could take hold soon. For now, the short-term trends are positive…
Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil have resumed their rallies after surging dramatically into late-March ’26 and consolidating below those highs (while correcting to multi-week support). That 1Q ’26 rally fulfilled analysis for a major low in early-Jan followed by a sharp 1Q ’26 surge.
At the same time, the XLE & XOI fulfilled multi-month Cycle Progressions by surging into late-March ‘26, including a ~23-month high (Jly ’18) – high (June ’20) – high (May ’22) – high (April ’24) – (high; Mar ’26) Cycle Progression & a ~6-month/ ~26-week high (Oct ’23) – high (Apr ’24) – high (Oct ’24) – high/low (Mar/Apr ’25) – high (Sept 22-26 ’25) – (high; Mar 23 – 27, ’26) Cycle Sequence.
On a broader basis, Unleaded Gas has a consistent ~4-year cycle that timed peaks (at least 6 – 12 months & often 1 – 2 years in duration) in May – July 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 & 2022… projecting a similar peak in May – July 2026. It has already surged to new highs – even as Crude & Heating Oil have rallied to lower highs – corroborating this expectation.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes have surged from a powerful convergence of daily, weekly & monthly Cycle Progressions and timing indicators on March 30, ’26. Many indexes also fulfilled major downside price objectives at their late-March ’26 lows – setting decisive bottoms. That ushered in a multi-month bottom in sync with an uncanny geometric cycle in the DJIA and the textbook scenario for the ~8-Month Cycle Progression in the NQ-100. The NQ-100 projects a 2 – 3-month surge to follow. As described in late-March ’26:
3-30-26 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling the outlook for a large sell-off in March ’26… They have stretched their declines into the late-March/early-April ’26 time frame – the ideal ~2-week period for a 1 – 2 month low to take hold… A low on March 30 – April 3, ’26 would also fulfill a ~51-week low (Apr 24 – 28 ’23) – low (Apr 15 – 19, ’24) – low (Apr 7 – 11, ’25) – (low; March 30 – April 2, ’26) Cycle Progression.
All things (timing indicators) considered, March 30th is the ideal date for an intermediate low…
The DJTA (Transportation Average) is reinforcing this… it turned its daily trend up… portending a quick, reactive 2 – 3 day pullback before a larger rally. The 3rd day of that reactive 2 – 3-day pullback is today – March 30th. It has not even neutralized its daily uptrend, reinforcing the potential for a secondary low and the onset of a larger advance.”
The outlook for a powerful surge in energy prices (and GSCI) in 1Q ’26 coincided with that as inflation markets continue to portend trouble in the first half of 2026. That was reinforced by mid-Jan buy signals & subsequent action in Crude & the products. Unleaded Gas should stretch a more significant peak into at least May ’26 – when broader monthly Cycle Progressions peak. However, oil stocks may have already set multi-month peaks while fulfilling a myriad of Cycle Progressions in late-March ‘26.
Why Did March 30, ’26 Likely Time Multi-Month Low in Stock Indexes?
How Does This Validate & Reinforce July ’26 Cycle Progressions?
What Does DJIA ~6-Month/~180-Degree Cycle Portend for 3Q 2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.