Stocks Project Dec ‘25/Jan ’26 Cycle Shift Lower; ~2-Year Cycle Returns in Jan ’26.
09-04-25 – “Stock Indices remain positive with the DJIA rallying to new all-time highs as the NQ-100 consolidates. All of the indexes rallied into mid-August – after failing to turn their daily trends down during the late-July sell-offs – but have traded divergently since then.
There are several key factors, in the over-arching analysis & related Cycle Progressions – that are important to review in order to keep current moves in proper context…
First, there is the 17-Year Cycle that was projected to spur a 20 – 30% (possibly 35 – 50%) plunge in most stocks in 2025 and potentially 2026. That outlook was powerfully fulfilled when stocks plummeted into early-April ’25 – with many of them suffering 30 – 50% losses as they headed into those cycle lows.
As stated in early-2025, the one consolation with these dramatic stock plunges is that each recovery has occurred quicker than the preceding one (although a second bout of serious selling is possible in 2026). That led into the subsequent analysis for a new surge…
Second, there was/is the outlook for a subsequent rally – to new all-time highs in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 – in line with monthly trends, monthly 21 MACs and over-arching monthly cycles in early-April ‘25. That has also been fulfilled.
Third, there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops.
The first of those was in late-July/early-August. The NQ-100 peaked in late-July and then spiked above – but did not give a weekly close above – the late-July ’25 peak in mid-August, initially validating that cycle. Some key stocks (AMZN, ORCL, AMD. MU, NVDA, META) acted similarly and signaled multi-week tops… but have not yet elevated those declines to anything more significant.
More on that in a minute.
The second of these two cycle peaks arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression.
Intervening price action will need to clarify if new highs are likely, leading into those cycles, or if the markets could see a broadening divergence with only a few key indexes – or maybe just a few key stocks – setting new highs while others set lower highs.
By themselves, those cycles do not distinguish that detail. They just provide the backdrop. Other indicators need to clarify and/or corroborate. The ideal cycle scenario would be if new highs were seen at that time… but there are multiple factors to monitor – in the coming weeks & months – before that would become the projected outcome for Dec ‘25/Jan ’26.
In the past ~month, the NQ-100 has been going through a textbook topping sequence, fulfilling overall expectations by surging into late-July ’25 – when it attacked and held a pair of weekly LHRs near 23,850/ NQU. That pattern signaled a likely 1 – 2 month peak to take hold in the 1 – 2 weeks that followed.
The NQ-100 rallied into mid-month, attacking & holding monthly resistance (23,996 – 24,118/NQU) – fulfilling its intra-month uptrends while simultaneously fulfilling its weekly LHR indicator. That was the ideal scenario for a top in mid-August – arriving within 2 weeks of the weekly LHR(s) test.
It then fulfilled analysis for a quick sharp drop into August 20/21st – when a multi-week low was projected… potentially the first low in a series of descending lows leading into late-Sept/early-Oct ’25.
However, all of the indexes need to give daily closes below their Sept 2nd lows to turn their new intra-month trends down and signal that a 1 – 2 month top is intact. Until then, the trends remain up. The NQ-100 also needs a daily close below 23,266/NQZ to turn its daily trend down. Until that occurs, there remains the risk of a retest of the mid-August high.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, though in the midst of some congestion. They fulfilled late-July/early-August ’25 (intermediate) cycle highs and are now turning focus to Dec ‘25/Jan ‘26 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
Will August Cycle Lows Spur New Stock Rallies into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
How Does That Tie Into Multi-Month Stock Cycle Highs in late-‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.