Stocks Project Dec ‘25/Jan ’26 Cycle Shift Lower; Late-July ’25 Initial Highs Corroborate.
09-10-25 – “Stock Indices remain positive but have fulfilled multi-month upside objectives in time & price. While that does not automatically signal a top, it does show that the overwhelming majority of upside potential – on a corresponding basis – is fulfilled.
In this case, that means 3 – 6 months’ worth of upside targets – stemming from the early-April ’25 lows & signals – have been met (and/or exceeded).
While projected tops are a good place to lighten up on longs (and projected bottoms are a good place to cover some short positions), they are not a place to immediately initiate short positions.
First, a top must be signaled – usually with the daily or intra-month trend turning down – and then subsequent phases of a reversal pattern should play out.
Stock indices fulfilled the first of two cycles (late-July/early-August) in the second half of 2025, by surging into that time frame and reaching new all-time highs in many indices (though not as many stocks, proportionately speaking).
The NQ-100 initially peaked in late-July and has not given a weekly close above that peak (with similar action seen in leading tech stocks like AMD, AMZN, META, NVDA). Until that occurs, the late-July ’25 cycle peak remains valid.
On a daily trend basis, however, the NQ-100 has not been able to turn its daily trend down during any of its quick, sharp 2 – 5 day pullbacks. That price indicator projected successive (new) highs as several daily & weekly Cycle Progressions matured.
The ideal scenario would have the NQ-100 [reserved for subscribers]” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes remain in overall uptrends, though in the midst of some congestion. They fulfilled late-July/early-August ’25 (intermediate) cycle highs and are now turning focus to Dec ‘25/Jan ‘26 – when a consistent ~13-month Cycle Progression next recurs. A more significant peak is expected at that time, dovetailing with the latest phases of the ~2-Year Cycle and a related ~4-Year Cycle Progression.
The Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert reiterated the outlook for the rest of 2025 and expectations for a dangerous period between Dec ’25 and March/April ’26. It stated:
9-03-25 – “…there is the pair of pivotal cycles in the second half of 2025 – both of which were/are likely to time the culmination of significant rallies and usher in critical tops. The first of those was in late-July/early-August…
The second cycle peak arrives in Dec ’25 and has been cited in previous analysis regarding these two time periods. Among other things, it is the next phase of a ~13-month low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – high (Nov ’24) – (high; Dec ’25) Cycle Progression.
Perhaps more significant is its connection to the ~2-Year Cycle and the over-arching ~4-Year Cycle.
The ~2-Year Cycle was examined frequently in late-2021/early-2022 – when a 6 – 12-month peak was forecast for Jan 2022. At the time, it was fulfilling a ~2-Year low (Jan/Feb ’14) – low (Jan/Feb ’16) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’20) – (high; Jan 2022) Cycle Progression and projected to spur a 6 – 9 month drop.
Two phases later is ~January 2026 and closely dovetails with that Dec ’25 (~13-month) cycle peak.
That is also the next phase of the over-arching ~4-Year low (Jan ’14) – high (Jan ’18) – high (Jan ’22) – (high; January 2026) Cycle Progression…It would be a more ‘pure’ cycle peak if new highs were seen at that time…” – End of excerpt from Sept 3, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
Will Stocks Ultimately Rally into Late-2025?
What Did Early-’25 Plunge ‘4-Shadow’ for 2026?
Why is Dec ’25 – March/April ’26 Vulnerable?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.