Stocks Project Pivotal Peak Near Date of Aggression (April 19/20).
03/30/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert– “The markets have begun a new ‘Natural Year’ that often sets the tone for the ensuing months/year. The first month of that ‘year’ stretches from March 20 (vernal equinox) into April 19/20 (Date of Aggression) and often presages what unfolds in the months that follow.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year. This is similar to how I treat the first 3 weeks – and month – of the calendar year, the first 3 trading days of each month, and the first day of the week.
Once that opening range (first 30 days) of the Natural Year is complete, you have resistance and support for the entire 12-month period – both when the market is trading in that range AND once it has broken out of it.
You also have an important gauge of trend for that year (if the market is trading above that range, it is in an uptrend on an intra-year basis, etc.).
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – from March 20/21 to April 19/20th – marks an important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is a time to watch each year for signs of ‘change’.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. As I have discussed for the past three decades, that time (surrounding April 19) is what I term the Date of Aggression – when significant attacks, battles, conflicts and wars have often occurred.
Corroborating that in 2022 is the fact that many weekly & monthly cycles are converging in the stock market AND in precious metals on April 18 – 22, ’22 and portending an important peak.
If fulfilled, those highs would take on even greater import due to their role within the opening range of the Natural Year… and the link to the Date of Aggression…
Stock Indices have surged since setting divergent lows in successive weeks (March 8 & 15) with the leading/stronger DJTA setting higher lows while the lagging/weaker NQ-100 set lower lows and fulfilled its intra-month downtrend (with a mid-month low).
As soon as the NQ-100 had fulfilled downside targets, it allowed all the other indices to accelerate their developing uptrends in the second half of March ‘22… just when the old ‘Natural Year’ was ending and a new one was taking hold.
So far, Natural Year 2022/23 has been favorable for equities.
Coinciding with that, many stocks and indexes pulled back into March 23/24 – setting higher lows while fulfilling various cycles that converged at that time – and then moved higher.
They are reinforcing the significance of their Feb 23/24 lows, cycles that bottomed out precisely as Russia was launching its invasion of Ukraine (‘sell the rumor, buy the news’**)…
[**Once again, the markets had been anticipating this type of fundamental event since early-Nov & early-Jan ’22 – when cycles and technical indicators projected successive peaks and a sharp sell-off to begin 2022. Russia had been amassing troops on Ukraine’s border since early-Nov, so astute investors were likely factoring this into their strategy. As soon as all the anticipating reached its climax, and the suspected fundamental came to fruition, those investors re-entered equities.]
The DJTA has been leading the way, triggering successive buy signals as other indexes steadily reversed higher. The NQ-100 finally bottomed out, reinforcing the 2-Year Cycle and projecting its own rally… a 50% rebound in time (16 weeks down/8 weeks up) would also culminate (peak) on April 18 – 22, ’22 and perpetuate a ~5.5-month (5.25 – 5.75 months or 22 – 24 weeks) high-high cycle that has timed 6 consecutive peaks.
In the interim, stocks were forecast to rally from mid-March into early-April – when an initial (short-term) high is most likely. That dovetails with the weekly trend pattern in the NQ-100, which could turn its weekly trend up on April 1 – with a weekly close above 14,840/NQM. That often coincides with an initial peak.”
Stocks fulfilled the outlook for a decisive peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 2 – 3 month plunge to begin 2022. Daily & weekly cycles projected a multi-week/multi-month bottom on Feb 23/24 with the NQ-100 remaining weak and portending a divergent spike low on March 14 – 18. That is just the start of a massive shift projected for 2022 – ultimately leading to market jolts in late-2022 through late-2023.
This stock market rebound is unfolding after Gold fulfilled analysis for an overall advance from late-Sept into early-March – with a myriad of cycles peaking on March 7 – 11 and projecting a subsequent peak on April 18/19 (similar to when DJIA cycles peak).
That also powerfully validates War Cycles projected to begin in late-2021/early-2022 and stretch through 2025. The next decisive time for stocks should arrive on/around the Date of Aggression – April 19/20, ’22. That is also when an unrelated convergence of daily & weekly cycles align.
How Does This Impact 10, 20 & 40-Year Stock Cycles Colliding in 2022?
Could Date of Aggression Usher in Precarious Time for Stocks?
How Do Gold Cycles (Peaking on April 18/19) Fit Into Equation??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.